KEY POINTS:
The Australian Government changed hands psychologically about 10 days ago, courtesy of the respective party policy launches in Brisbane. Yes, it's true the general election will be held tomorrow, but the policy launches represented a turning point in Australian politics.
On Monday of last week, Prime Minister John
Howard opted for a traditional opening with a series of big-ticket items which totalled some A$10 billion ($11.7 billion) by the end of his 41 minutes at the lectern. Even by Australian standards, this is a record for public spending.
Two days later, Kevin Rudd refused to follow him down that burrow. To an enthusiastic reception from the Labor faithful, Rudd said he regarded this kind of public spending as reckless and that it had to stop. At this point, responsibility for the economic governance of Australia passed from Government to Opposition. The commentators applauded Rudd's restraint. The public have endorsed it too, given Labor's continuing lead in the polls.
With Labor emerging as the party of fiscal conservatism, the actions of a Rudd Labor Government in its first 100 days will be very much coloured by this determination to act with restraint.
The question being asked, particularly in the Sydney and Melbourne business communities, is just what shape a newly elected Labor Government would take. It's interesting, in terms of personnel and policies.
Some Labor frontbenchers have grown in stature during the campaign and certain issues have really emerged in the foreground. But more of this in a little while.
First, let's deal with the possibility of a fifth Howard Coalition Government. All the polls suggest otherwise and there is little speculation on a conservative victory, but the PM has come from behind on various occasions and no Australian election is ever determined until the final vote is cast in a WA polling booth in Esperance or Broome.
A fifth Howard Government would see the Prime Minister vindicated. He would have won against the odds and seized victory from the sharpest teeth of defeat imaginable.
Nonetheless, Howard would be gone in a year or so. Treasurer Peter Costello would step up to the mark, with his deputy to be drawn from the likes of Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull (should he survive in Wentworth), Defence Minister Brendan Nelson or Minister for Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs Mal Brough (should he retain the seat of Longman in Queensland).
If the Coalition wins, it will be the narrowest win imaginable, perhaps equalling Menzies' return to office in 1961, with the result hanging on a narrow Liberal win on preferences in the Queensland seat of Moreton, held by Jim Killen.
This would mean a disciplined and focused conservative government, cautious on legislative change and with both eyes fixed on the 2010 election.
Now to Labor.
The election of a Labor Government in 2007 would be unique in Australian history. It would represent the first occasion on which national government has changed hands in the midst of broad prosperity. Senior conservatives are having trouble digesting this potential reality.
The fact is that in our presidential politics, Rudd has run a disciplined and effective campaign. Rarely has he wavered from message and that message has concentrated on a handful of issues on which Labor is committed to change.
On most issues, Labor has been relaxed about the Government accusing it of "Me Tooism". For Labor understood from the outset that the punters were comfortable with an Opposition which did not oppose everything simply for opposition's sake. They thought this a mature approach to political life.
So Labor focused on issues on which it could take the high ground and on which it would possibly win. These issues included:
* Withdrawal from Iraq (in consultation with the American allies).
* More vigorous action on climate change, with a policy which sees 20 per cent of Australian energy requirements coming from renewable sources by 2020.
* Intervention in the Australian health system, with the states being eligible for A$2 billion in extra funding, provided they lift their games or accept a takeover by Canberra.
* An initiative with the private sector to build a national broadband system as critical infrastructure.
* The abolition of WorkChoices.
This agenda has been the constant focus of the federal Labor campaign and will guide its immediate business programme in government.
The first point to make is that this will be very much a Rudd Labor Government. This will be as much Kevin Rudd's personal victory as it is an endorsement of Labor. Already, Labor has shown its confidence in Rudd by agreeing to let him as leader choose his ministry, rather than permitting the caucus of the federal parliamentary Labor Party to exercise its prerogative.
The new Prime Minister will be quite relaxed intervening in any portfolio area. This is obviously true of Foreign Affairs and Defence, where Rudd has already made it clear he will elevate the national security focus in the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet.
Wayne Swan has grown as shadow treasurer. He did well debating Costello and has not put a foot wrong during this campaign. Nor has Lindsay Tanner, the shadow finance spokesman, who has had a lesser role but has impressed all who have had contact with him, especially in the setting of the boardroom dinner. These two figures will be pivotal in setting the economic policy framework for the Labor Government, beginning with an audit of federal spending. Already, they are being likened to the legendary senator, Peter Walsh, sometimes called "Dr No", who was Finance Minister in the Hawke/Keating years.
Many of Labor's frontbench, including Steve Smith, Peter Garrett, Martin Ferguson and Senator Stephen Conroy, will make a seamless translation from Opposition to Government. Others like Nicola Roxon, who has done particularly well in Health, have earned extra points by a tough and resolute performance during the campaign. One of the rising stars is Chris Bowen, the shadow Assistant Treasurer, who has already developed a reputation for having a formidable policy grasp in matters of business and economic management.
Labor's Deputy Leader, Julia Gillard, has been the most understated and underrated performer of the campaign. While under enormous pressure from conservative attacks upon her personally, she has been flawless in the electorate. And she probably took the line of this election when she told Barrie Cassidy of ABC TV, not to behave like a "jilted lover" and to get on and interview her, in the absence of Rudd, who had opted for an appearance with Rove McManus instead.
Gillard will take responsibility for workplace relations. She is no firebrand despite the conservative propaganda. Abolishing WorkChoices will see a bill sent to the Senate to be voted on. Labor will not be entertaining amendments. This is likely to be an early challenge for the new Government but evidence to date suggests Gillard is more than up to it.
One more point needs to be made. Labor is about to embark on a major shake-up of the commonwealth bureaucracy. The Prime Minister's office will be expanded and deepened in its power. An infrastructure statutory authority is to be created. Defence will see changes in coastal protection and a Department of Homeland Security will group together all those bodies responsible for domestic protection from terrorism. There are other commitments as well, but these changes give an idea of the nature of the shift which will occur in Canberra after the election, should Labor win.
It's also useful noting that neither of the major parties is likely to control the Senate when the dust settles tomorrow. The rest is down to the voters.
* Stephen Loosley, a former federal president of the Labor Party and Australian senator, chairs business advocacy group Committee for Sydney
