Matt McCarten: Manoeuvres show Key as master tactician

John Key's move has dumped Winston Peters in Labour's camp. Photo / Mark Mitchell

In two quick simple decisions John Key transformed this year's election, turning the tables on his opponents.

Setting the election date for November 26 was signalled well in advance. But I can't remember any time when an incumbent prime minister didn't keep the opposition (and the country) guessing on an election date right up until he or she popped up to the Governor-General to resign.

This one small perk of power was to keep your opposition off guard about dates. As someone who has had to run a few campaigns, it matters.

Not knowing when you can book venues, travel and events does matter.

The assured manner Key has gone about his announcement shows a confidence that should unnerve Phil Goff. To most voters Key has merely made a practical and transparent decision without any apparent political advantage.

But the real stinger that deserves high praise was Key's kneecapping of National nemesis Winston Peters.

Over recent months Peters has been slowly but consistently gaining support in the polls to the point where he could quite possibly once again have become the kingmaker in any post-election negotiations.

In one swipe Key has almost certainly dealt Peters a mortal blow. More importantly he got Goff as well. It's a bold and gutsy move. Key made his fortune by taking calculated risks and he's made what I suspect is a winning chess move.

Key's decision has set up this year's election as essentially a first-past-the- post election in a stable and predictable environment.

Voters like that and it will reinforce in their minds Key is a competent manager of the country and the political process, which won't do him any harm. By refusing to parlay with Peters he is also seen to be principled and mischievously dumps NZ First into Goff's camp.

In one swoop Key gives us two choices of government after the election - a government led by him or a Labour/NZ First/Greens alternative. Voters make your choice.

I was astonished Goff and Peters claimed Key was naive and arrogant. It was a masterstroke.

Goff has no choice but to accept Peters as his ally and this will hurt him. Any votes NZ First now gets won't come from anyone who wants Key as prime minister.

That lengthens the already high odds Peters can reach enough votes to return to Parliament. Peters' future will rely more on cannabilising votes from Labour rather than growing the total pie. A tall order indeed.

The angry and disenfranchised constituency that Peters cultivates includes many centre-right voters who opposed the Greens' sponsored anti-smacking campaign.

Peters' decision to prioritise repealing the anti-smacking laws, oppose the latest compromise over the seabed and foreshore, and introduce binding referendums as part of our political process makes him look irrelevant.

These are side issues that appeal to the marginalised.

Key is positioning himself as the forward-looking positive leader and Goff is saddled with the old bodgie. Given the fact Goff was first in cabinet 36 years ago, to say he's looking a bit tired is an understatement.

Goff's cautious reshuffle of his frontbench reinforces the problem. Only one change in the front bench at the same time as every old Helen Clark hack keeps their job.

It signals Goff does not have control of his caucus, he is timid by nature or he hasn't got enough talent in his caucus. I suspect it's all three.

There is some glimmer of hope for Goff this week in that Key's decisions somewhat work for him too. It stops Peters from pretending he has options as NZ First's and Labour's futures are now entwined.

This reality will force Peters to work constructively with Goff if he has any chance of getting over the 5 per cent threshold in November.

The other plus is the country does get two legitimate choices.

The only bummer for the centre-left is it's on Key's terms, not Goff's.