KEY POINTS:
Election year hostilities have opened with Helen Clark and John Key making their first policy announcements within hours of each other. It's interesting they chose educational opportunities for youth as their opening bids.
Since Robert Muldoon's time, the National Party leader has made a state-of-the-nation speech at this time of year. Clark has avoided copying this tradition. But given that Labour know they're in for the scrap of their life to maintain the treasury benches, she can't give Key any advantage and must cover any initiative he makes.
Clark deliberately timed her speech to be within hours after Key's delivery, to ensure she could crowd out any good before it got any real traction. She won't make the same mistake she did with Don Brash, when he gave an anti-Maori speech at Orewa before the last election which resulted in National surging past Labour in the polls and nearly winning.
Key obviously had some advantage in going first, but Clark coming in shortly after with somewhat similar ideas effectively nullified any gain. The general consensus is that Key's initiative is more practical but because both speeches were given so close together, most New Zealanders won't really be aware of any major differences between them.
Key had better relevance connecting his speech with the recent murders and crimes by youths over the summer, whereas Clark's speech made no such mention. Whilst Key was being opportunistic, it did hit a nerve. Most people now will take the view that National wants to provide greater training and education as a means of reducing youth delinquency and crime. By contrast, Clark's policy focuses more on building long-term skills to improve New Zealand's competitiveness. In straight election-year politics, Key would win on points but probably not by much due to Clark successfully boxing him in.
Labour can take heart from Clark's performance as it's clear she's going to lead from the front. She has already read the riot act to her MPs and, I assume, we won't have any of the self-inflicted injuries they were plagued with last year. Also whilst Clark is rightly campaigning as the underdog, I'm sure she will be pleasantly surprised at the latest New Zealand Herald poll.
It shows National dipping under the 50 per cent mark, which would mean that, contrary to most polls last year, National can no longer now rule in its own right. National's problem is that apart from Act they have no other automatic coalition partners. Given Rodney Hide's party's public support, Key will need at least one other party's backing to take the top job.
Clark will be relieved that poll shows Labour has gained slightly in support. But the big story was that the Green party had soared to 9.5 per cent. In the last few polls, the Greens have been below the 5 per cent threshold. I suspect the surge was due to left-leaning 'undecideds' returning, because of the fear that the Greens could disappear from Parliament if they remained where they were.
It's likely National will continue its lead over Labour for some time. Therefore, the only way that Labour will be returned to Government is if the Greens are. Without the Greens support, Labour has no chance. Their futures are intertwined.
All polls should be interpreted by adding the Labour and Green support together and comparing that total with National's. When we do this for the New Zealand Herald poll, we come to the happy conclusion for the Left that a Labour-led government is neck and neck with National.
As I've said, previously the minnow parties led by Jim Anderton, Peter Dunne and Hide, will be lucky to return one or two MPs each and will make no difference to the final election outcome. The only uncertainty in this mix is whether Winston Peters can win the Tauranga seat back off National. The other wild card, of course, is the Maori Party. All the party strategists have worked this out and that's why this year, Clark and Key will go out of their way to be nice to Peters and the Maori Party.
The political uncertainty will make this year bruising, where both Key and Clark will go head-to-head every day between now and the election. Clark is formidable, but Key - to the delight of his party - is increasingly becoming a credible match.
We will see a lot more of what happened last week, where whenever a party launches an initiative, the other party will try to gazump it. Without doubt, it will be a nail-biting exercise for their supporters, but it will be a bonanza for journalists. Even better, I think it will ensure that we see some creative policy initiatives.
Both policy announcements on youth and education by Key and Clark have considerable merit.
If we can have similar positive and creative solutions to the rest of our problems, we will be very lucky. Clark is in the fight of her life to be the first Labour leader to win four terms in government. If she wins again Labour will become the dominant party under MMP for years. National, as the traditional ruling party, won't survive as a coherent political force out of power for another three years.
It's not often that our politicians have to suck up to us. But their futures depend on it. So put your feet up and enjoy the rest of the year.
