KEY POINTS:
Recent polls have increased National's already huge lead over Labour - back to the extraordinary levels of last year where it is quite possible they could govern without coalition partners.
Not many people would expect this level of support to continue. Only an extraordinarily partisan optimist would venture that Labour had any chance of catching National before the election. Even if Labour persuaded all the minor parties to back them, they wouldn't garner a majority over National at this point.
The contest between our two major parties has nothing on the excitement of the Democratic primary elections in the United States. Yet there are similarities and lessons our politicians could learn. Up until a few weeks ago, Hillary Clinton was the establishment candidate and the primary elections incidental to her taking her rightful place as Democratic Presidential Candidate. Even though John McCain is a popular and moderate choice for the Republicans, it is difficult to imagine the Democrats won't sweep the presidency and both Houses of Congress in their main elections in November.
Until January, Clinton's public support over her rivals was larger than the current gap between National and Labour. Texas and Ohio had Clinton leading by over 20 percentage points just three weeks ago. Two days before last week's election it looked all over for Clinton, as polls showed that her opponent, Barack Obama, had passed her in Texas and was within the margin of error in Ohio. But Obama's campaign miscalculated Clinton's experience and ruthlessness.
In the last few days of the campaign Clinton ran a series of dirty TV adverts and questioned Obama's character. It was clear Obama didn't see these attacks coming and was unnerved. Clinton's tactics hit their target and you could see the tide ebbing away on Obama in the 48 hours before the elections. He lost Texas by three points and Ohio by a whopping 12 points.
Most people thought Obama would put Clinton away but her attack strategy allowed her to survive and temporarily gain the upper hand.
It's clear that Labour, like Clinton, has nothing to lose and the only way they can close the gap is to go after John Key. Parliament was particularly brutal, with Labour heavyweights led by Michael Cullen giving Key a right doing over.
The Republicans' quite successful campaign in calling Bill Clinton, when he was President, "Slick Willie", must have given Labour some ideas. They managed to get the Speaker's permission to use the term, "slippery" when referring to Key in the House.
Apparently, Labour thinks "Slippery Key" will stick because of Key's so far successful strategy of not doing anything that might trip him up. When Labour announced they were putting blocks on foreign ownership of strategic assets, specifically Auckland Airport, they asked Key what a National government would do.
Key was caught in a dilemma: however he answered would have consequences because it's popular to oppose foreign control of our airports and yet business interests would be horrified if National agreed with Labour's position not to sell. Key's waffling did, indeed, make him look slippery.
This, on top of Key's gaffs and fudging as to whether he supported the dropping of wages and his position on the Maori seats has given Labour the opening it needs to discredit him.
Key has had a dream run up until now and has surged past Clark. Labour knows that unless they can damage Key's credibility and character they will lose the election. Labour's only chance is to fight hard ball. This is even more urgent now because Cullen's tax cuts and a big spend-up before the election is under serious threat. Our economy is reported to be slowing and the resulting tax take is likely down by $700 million. If this is true, there will be $600 less per household for him to use to entice our vote.
But it is not only a strengthened and confident National Party Labour has to fight. According to last week's DigiPoll the Maori Party could take all seven Maori seats. This poll also shows NZ First supporters saying their party should back National. Even among Maori voters who have been staunchly Labour, a third now think the Maori Party should dump Labour for National.
National's strategy is similar to Obama's. Clark's strategy, like Clinton's, has to be about her experience. Still, based on current evidence, the Prime Minister's job is Key's on election night.
However, as Obama rudely discovered last week, nothing is predictable in politics. If Clark and Labour can land enough hits on Key's waffling and inexperience, they just might be able to claw their way back and surprise us all.
