KEY POINTS:
Well, as it was an election year you'd have expected a few casualties and winners in politics. Here's a list of the leading players.
Helen Clark
A generation of first-time voters on election day had never known anyone else as prime minister. In her first years as the Labour Party leader, she never rated more than 2 per cent in public polls. Yet she became the dominant political figure of our generation.
She was never the "larger than life" political icon we have come to expect of our most-successful prime ministers. But she was respected and trusted. She, more than anyone, rebuilt the Labour Party after the right-wing nutters nearly destroyed it in the 1980s. It would have been a miracle if she had won a fourth term and she was always going to have to carry the can if Labour lost. To her credit, she managed a clean transition to her rival, Phil Goff. Not many political leaders exit with such class.
Michael Cullen
Probably the smartest and definitely the wittiest of our politicians. He saved our economy from the Rogernomics experiment. Under his financial stewardship, Labour delivered high employment, low inflation and growth every year. He and Clark were a dream team and had a dream run. But all political careers ultimately end in defeat and when she went he also rolled himself. Bill English has big shoes to fill.
Winston Peters
Politics is already less interesting without him. All commentators had written him off as having no chance of getting back to Parliament. But he nearly had us all eating our hats when he fell less than 1 per cent short of getting back with six MPs. If he had made the 5 per cent threshold, Clark would still be prime minister. But he has had a great run and survived the past two elections by a whisker. New Zealand First, of course, dies with him. Admittedly, Winston's party was a cult but at least he brought MPs in with him. You can't say the same for the last of the old guard, Jim Anderton and Peter Dunne. Why doesn't Anderton join Labour and Dunne National and stop the pretence?
Roger Douglas
He's like some old war veteran who won't fade away. It's clear he's spent the past decade of his forced retirement wondering where he went wrong. Then, like any old ideologue, he realised he just didn't go far enough. His latest plan includes abolishing any minimum wage, which will apparently lead to a $500-a-week increase in the average worker's income. Thank God, John Key has made it a condition of his coalition agreement that Act keeps him locked in Parliament's basement.
Rodney Hide
He could never convince his former caucus colleagues, when Richard Prebble was leader, that he could win Epsom and save Act from oblivion. Douglas publicly denounced Hide as a populist. So it must be a delicious irony that winning Epsom keeps Act in Parliament, and that Douglas is only there on Hide's coat-tails. I'm not so sure Hide is as right wing as he was. At least I hope he's not.
Jeanette Fitzsimons
The Greens have been lucky to have her. Rod Donald's death left a huge hole. Her plans to step down this election were put on hold for obvious reasons but she will go next time. Her party, however, is spending yet another term on the opposition backbenches. It is starting to look like the Greens will always be bridesmaid. Their brand was new and sexy but they are starting to look old and tired.
The Maori Party
This party got more out of National than they could have expected. After all, they should have got all seven Maori seats. Supporting a National government without too much risk or responsibility may prove to be a boon. Everyone knows they had to do what they did. The alternative was to sit on the opposition benches next to their electoral competition, Labour. It might become a long-term partnership that moderates both parties.
Phil Goff
If anyone can pull off a victory for Labour next time, Goff can. Excluding the Maori Party, he has to regain four seats to get the top job. He's waited a decade for the chance. The conventional wisdom is he's a one-term leader but he's still relatively young, with at least a decade at the top yet. Under Clark, the factional warfare inside the Labour Party ended, and Goff can expect this internal peace to continue. The only problem for him is that he and Key are too similar.
John Key
National's win has more to do with him than anything else. Clark wasn't as widely opposed as other defeated prime ministers. And the election wasn't decided on policy, as voters could count the major differences on one hand. Unless Key has a secret agenda, it's starting to appear that this National Government could be the most moderate administration since Keith Holyoake. Assuming he can control the Act caucus and not do anything to alienate the Maori Party, he should sneak through the next election. Clearly he's the political winner of the year.
