You are John Key... Damn it, this wasn't what you came to politics to do. You're not some frugal, company accountant, you are not afraid of debt, says John Roughan.
You are John Key. You find yourself at the end of your first year in power more popular, somehow, than when you came in. You know how. You've avoided anything seriously contentious so far.
When people challenge you about this you tell them you are a survivor. They can see that.
They are already starting to compare you to Holyoake, the only post-war Prime Minister to win four terms.
Do you want to be Holyoake? His Government lasted 12 years and not much happened. Not much needed to happen until Britain joined Europe near the end of his time. The oil shocks, inflation, double-digit unemployment all came after him. He was lucky.
You are lucky. If a few votes had gone the other way in 2005 you would have been Finance Minister for Don Brash these past four years. Or maybe for just three of them, if Brash implemented the full economic prescription he has just written for you.
Instead, as luck would have it, Brash self-destructed and here you are.
You didn't feel so lucky when you came in. The world economy was headed for a Great Depression. The last of the Budget surplus had been blown to carry the country through. You were looking at deficits for a decade and resurging public debt.
Back then, you wouldn't have believed the international recession would have abated within a year. Is there no end to your luck?
You are still wary. Unemployment could persist for six months or so. But this week the Reserve Bank turned its attention to growth again, expecting to start lifting interest rates against inflation a bit earlier next year.
It also said it would be helpful if you trimmed next year's Budget much more drastically than you did this year's. You are on a promise to Standard & Poor's to do something about the debt, too.
Bill English has made it known we are borrowing about $250 million a week for public expenses. That should prepare the country for reduced spending, tax increases or both. Brash's report offered you plenty of savings, not all of them as suicidal as you think. A tax working party will soon suggest additional sources of revenue, particularly from real estate. Will you dare?
Damn it, this wasn't what you came to politics to do. You're not some frugal, company accountant, you are not afraid of debt. You know how to make money work. You've made a personal fortune and you came to politics to do something similar for the country.
Back when the economy was booming you talked about "leveraging" the economy for greater national wealth. "Borrowing", we think you meant, for astute investment in projects that might generate products of higher value.
If borrowing is at its limit now there must be other ways to lift the game. You can do a lot with regulation. Take tourism.
When you took the tourism portfolio you must have had more than a national bikeway in mind, though that is a good start. It's simple, costs little, fits the national image and sounds like fun.
Next, do something about architecture. Tourism depends on more than lovely landscape. Buildings should live up to the scenery. Our rural towns are, with a few exceptions, blots on the landscape. Their constructions are without character, charm or consistency. When a town like Tirau makes an effort you can see some possibilities.
Building codes in this country should not be afraid to dictate some aesthetics. The Swiss do, and look at the visual results. Their refusal to permit Muslim minarets at a referendum this week might have not have been about religious intolerance but about maintaining the country's building character.
Native tree plantings, too, should be required of farms for shelter belts and erosion control. If climate change doesn't give the plantations value as carbon credits in an emissions trading scheme, conservation funds should pay for them.
Besides tourism, you could upgrade our entire food production with costless brand licensing. New Zealand should be a brand no food or beverage is allowed to carry unless it is tested for quality and taste. Most consumers don't care if cows are kept in stalls so long as the cheese is as good as the pasture can produce. And they don't care if Fonterra and Zespri source some of their product from other places. If it is top shelf, call it New Zealand.
If you were John Key you could use a good summer holiday for time to think, read, dream and realise this is your moment.
With your luck and your reserves of political capital you might take daring steps that leave the country ever grateful. Or you might survive. It's up to you.
This column is taking a break for the next two weeks. Happy Christmas.
