KEY POINTS:
So, it is already "game on" - and full on. Next week Helen Clark and John Key draw pistols at 10 paces. Their duel will be no minor skirmish.
The Prime Minister's tactical decision to try to trump National's leader by making a landmark speech the day after Key's similar attempt to make a big splash is very high-risk stuff indeed with which to start the year.
That this is happening so early is an indication this election year will be a long, drawn-out affair which will see the parties electioneering more intensely than ever.
But it is also the case that Clark had little choice.
Her normal stratagem is not to engage with Key outside question-time in Parliament, the only time she has to do so.
No doubt she will brush aside attempts to draw her into debating the major drawcard in Key's scene-setting speech next Tuesday.
However, this is the first time she has really put herself in a position where she is inviting the media and public to make a direct comparison between her and Key in terms of content, style, performance and substance.
The verdict on who wins this contest - and Clark clearly believes she will win on substance - is crucial because leadership is going to be the issue running through the year and into the election campaign proper.
We know that because such will be the intensity of the battle for votes in the centre of the political spectrum that it is going to be difficult at times to tell the two major parties apart.
But we also know leadership is going to be a dominating factor because Clark intends to make it so. She made that very clear in her speech to last November's Labour Party conference. That address contained nearly 40 references linking Labour and "leadership", the subtext being Clark has the experience and expertise and Key doesn't.
It was around that time that Clark also apparently decided Labour could not afford to let Key have another unfettered run in the media via the National leader's annual late January "state of the nation" extravaganza while she waited until the formal Prime Minister's statement at the resumption of Parliament in mid-February to strike back.
Clark is innately cautious when it comes to big-picture speeches. But if she had any reservations about departing from her normal practice, the pre-Christmas polls which had Labour slumping way behind National settled matters.
Labour simply cannot afford to let Key generate fresh momentum in the new year. Next Wednesday's speech is all about stopping that happening.
In opting to effectively go head-to-head with Key, Clark has raised the stakes considerably. But she knows what she is doing. She has the advantage of following Key in speaking order. He has the advantage of Opposition, which will allow him to go out on more of a limb.
She knows she has to come up with something which is more sensational or more exciting or more substantial or more visionary than Key. She has to meet at least one of those criteria to satisfy expectations when she gets up to speak at the Waitakere Business Club on Wednesday morning less than 24 hours after Key winds up his speech to an invited National Party audience at the Novotel Hotel in Ellerslie.
That Clark is proceeding with her speech knowing full well the risks has furrowed some brows within Key's inner circle where the Prime Minister is respected as a clever and dangerous foe.
Clark's challenge has also made it essential the crucial parts of Key's speech designed to make the most impact are kept tightly under wraps until Tuesday.
The speech is said to tackle a particular issue in a direct and substantial manner which will get people talking. But this year there will be no deliberate leaks to stoke up public anticipation of its contents. National knows if Labour gets even a whiff of the subject matter, the Beehive will flood the media with information to counter it in advance.
And vice versa. Labour is saying little about Clark's speech. However, there seems little question that it will also be "newsy", possibly setting a fresh direction in some policy area, while drawing on Clark's four themes summing up Labour's approach to governing - opportunity, security, sustainability and identity.
However, the speech will also be analysed for an indication of how Labour intends to go about fighting what will be an intensely difficult election for the party.
Labour's take on the polls is that while there is an obvious mood for change in terms of who governs, there is no mood for a change in the country's direction and, crucially, neither do voters think there will be one.
Labour has to convince voters that electing National will see an unwanted and unnecessary change in direction. But this won't be easy. Key's inclination is firmly towards the centre, at times crossing it to out-flank Labour if that is where the votes are.
He has already displayed that tendency this year. With the numbers signing up to KiwiSaver surging past the 300,000 mark, Key has indicated National will not make dramatic changes to the expanded scheme.
Having neutralised that vulnerability for National, Key then appealed to conservative Labour supporters by hinting that National would place obligations on unemployed beneficiaries to go back to school or polytechnic to boost their qualifications.
Key has also learned from his mistakes last year. His message to himself and his caucus colleagues is "stay on message and don't get distracted". He will emphasise the need for discipline, discipline and more discipline when National's caucus meets in Rotorua later next week for its annual planning retreat.
That sounds much like the message that Clark delivered to her Cabinet ministers this week.
After Labour's ragged performance in 2007, there are early signs Labour is sharpening up its act. It knows it has been too consumed by having to react to events and must start being far more proactive in selling its message.
That approach was apparent on Wednesday amidst the turmoil on world sharemarkets and talk of recession in the United States.
Michael Cullen fronted to the broadcast media supplying sound-bites of reassurance, while a more detailed statement was offered to selected newspapers in the form of an opinion piece under the Finance Minister's name.
The catering for news organisations' differing requirements is a sign Labour will adopt a smarter media strategy this year.
In turn, the media's handling of next week's speeches will be seen by Labour as a test of whether the media is going to treat it fairly in election year or whether they have simply already written the party off.
But that is the crux of the matter. The true measure of whether Clark's speech is a success or not will be whether it convinces the wider public that the election is not a fait accompli and Labour is still very much in the running.
