John Armstrong: No, Prime Minister, it can't be you ...

Sorry, Prime Minister. When it comes to picking the Politician of the Year, there really is no contest. However, we think the last thing people could be bothered reading in the hectic run-up to Christmas would be another eulogy on the political virtues of John Key.

Suffice to say that on the basis of one measure alone - the polls - Key would win by default. Throughout the Government's first year in office, National has been consistently rating at 10 or more percentage points above the already-lofty 45 per cent the party recorded at last year's election.

That is truly staggering. However, there is plenty of other material to justify awarding Key the title - a competence twinned with confidence in firmly grasping the role of Prime Minister, a strong instinct for assessing what the public will and will not tolerate, a consequent, never-ending repositioning of National as close to mainstream opinion as more ideologically driven colleagues can stomach, oversight of a Cabinet work programme of quite daunting proportions, overcoming National's longstanding arrogance toward Maori by building a lasting relationship with the Maori Party (and likewise, but less successfully, with the Greens), a capacity for quick but sound decision-making, and lastly, a willingness to be ruthless when necessary. Just ask Richard Worth. But enough of all that.

But before "moving on" - a tired euphemism for saying "let's forget about that" and which itself should be "moved on" - let's mention the blunders. The one wedged in the memory is the appointment of Christine Rankin to the Families Commission. What possessed Key to go there? Then there is the question of responsibility for National's dreadful campaign in the Mt Albert byelection. The failure to front on byelection night or ensure someone else of sufficient seniority was present to hold the hand of the unfortunate Melissa Lee at one of the worst moments in her life was about as pretty as watching the lamington being crushed on the head of Act's John Boscawen.

Then there has been the less than perfect day-to-day management of relations with National's support partners. And Key gets a big black mark for not allowing a flexible Labour Opposition to be party to National's revised emissions trading scheme.

Key has made some big calls - refusing to heed the outcome of the anti-smacking referendum being a prime example. There has also been arch pragmatism - such as the caving in to motorcyclists when it came to increasing ACC levies.

Perhaps Key's biggest test was National's response to the recession. That was adequate rather than exceptional - but probably enough to keep people happy. The question now is what National will do to meet its promise to make a recovering economy grow at a far faster clip than it has in the past 40 years or so.

That begs a further question. Which is the real John Key - a poll-driven Prime Minister or a truly reforming one? What we may have been witnessing with both him and his predecessor, Helen Clark, is a new kind of prime minister, a watered-down mixture of manager and reformer, resulting from the constraints of MMP.

But enough of all that.

In the interests of promoting more competition - something with which, as a National MP, Key would presumably agree - the rules have been amended so no one can take the award two years running. That change has been backdated to last year when Key was the winner.

But again, as a pragmatic politician, Key would have little trouble swallowing that, would he?

Something else which will take little swallowing will be the bottles of "JK"-labelled premium Central Otago Prime Minister's pinot noir that landed on office desks around the parliamentary complex this week. Without even opening a bottle, we figure this ain't cheap plonk. A rough estimate would suggest that the 20 cases Key ordered would have set him back $5000. Still, a nice gesture. But we will not be swayed. The rule change stays.

It should be noted that the award is not judged solely on some Nobel Prize-like criterion that requires the recipient's achievements to have advanced the interests of mankind.

That is a consideration. What we are looking for is effectiveness in advancing both the country's interests and those of the politician's own party. That might require a bit of vermin-like cunning reinforced by sheer determination and simple hard work. We are not expecting a Mahatma Gandhi or a Nelson Mandela.

This year's candidates are not difficult to pick. Bill English would have been a strong contender on the basis of his warmly received Budget and his careful hand on the economic tiller in the face of forces largely beyond his control. The recession was one of the two big stories that dominated 2009. English was badly tarnished by the other one - the exposure of MPs' rorting of expenses.

Lockwood Smith gets much credit for shining long-overdue light on that rort. He has been less a breath of fresh air in the Speakership, more a force nine gale. He deserves the nation's thanks for bravely insisting ministers make a real effort to answer questions properly. He has upheld the maxim that ministers are accountable to Parliament and has halted the sorry slide of ministers' question time into what was becoming a complete farce.

But being Speaker - tough and lonely as the job may get - does not equate with being a minister.

In that regard, we have more than a sneaking regard for Judith Collins, who was given two hospital passes when handed the police and corrections portfolios.

She may have lost her battle to oust Corrections Department boss Barry Matthews, but she has probably won the war. Corrections has not been the political disaster zone of of prior years. Collins deserves some credit for that.

Another minister in the law and order area, Simon Power, is also a contender, having already pushed a telephone book-long list of measures through Parliament. He is from the other end of the law and order spectrum in the National caucus to Collins and fast developing a legacy which will put him in the same league as other past high-achieving National Party justice ministers such as Sir Douglas Graham and Ralph Hanan.

No one can be anything but impressed with Steven Joyce. As a new MP last year, he went straight into the Cabinet lacking any experience of the parliamentary battle. But you would have trouble noticing it. He has quickly become an influential figure within the Government. As transport minister, his business background means he is all about getting things done, especially with roading. His go-ahead to Auckland's Waterview connection in the form of a cheaper combination of surface and below-ground segments rather than a tunnel may have killed Lee's chances of a good byelection result. But Joyce was targeting National-leaning voters in the rest of Auckland who want the road completed as soon as possible.

Likewise, last week's big tick for Wellington's Transmission Gully after years of dithering should get large buy-in for National from voters in a region where Labour has held much sway.

But when it comes to Politician of the Year, it is difficult to go past Tony Ryall. The Health Minister has hardly put a foot wrong in a portfolio which traditionally has been a political graveyard. Ryall's political management in his portfolio has been exemplary, first with respect to the swine flu scare and then with the Labtests fiasco in Auckland.

He has worked out that an ageing population is more worried about getting adequate treatment and no longer so concerned about whether it is done in a public or private hospital.

Ryall has a definite ideological streak. Witness the appointment of former Treasury chief executive Murray Horn to head Ryall's ministerial review of the health sector. But Ryall is smart enough to know that more upheaval will in the short term mean less of what he and voters want, especially regarding cutting waiting lists for elective surgery.

Rather than tear up the district health board model, Ryall has sought to get boards to co-operate. His approach may be termed "gradualism on speed" even though that may seem a contradiction in terms. So far, he kept most groups in the large health lobby on side. That is no mean achievement. Things get harder from here, with the sector no longer being able to count on getting a $750 million injection next year. But we're talking about this year. The title goes to Ryall in Key's forced absence. Which brings us to another bouquet ...

Backbencher of the Year: Act's John Boscawen. Will be remembered as the candidate who copped a lamington at a byelection meeting. Boscawen, however, deserves recognition for more positive reasons, notably for understanding - unlike one or two of his Act colleagues - that politics is the art of the possible.

Polite to a fault, the Aucklander is not afraid of putting Cabinet ministers on the spot with well-timed and astutely worded questions that deliberately ignore or undercut Act's alliance with National.

A self-employed finance and property investor before entering Parliament last year, he scored a minor coup in securing a much-needed select committee inquiry into finance houses. This is important in showing Act cares as much about the interests of small investors and the pitfalls of an unregulated market as it does the needs of big business. And Boscawen's performance in the byelection was solid, if not spectacular.

OTHERS TO NOTE

Rising stars: National's Steven Joyce and Paula Bennett; Labour's David Parker, Grant Robertson, Charles Chauvel, Phil Twyford and Chris Hipkins; the Maori Party's Rahui Katene.
The "we wish 2009 never happened ... please say it never happened" award: Shared by National's Richard Worth, Kate Wilkinson, Melissa Lee and Kanwaljit Singh, and Labour's Phil Goff and Chris Carter.
Quiet achievers: Foreign Minister Murray McCully, Trade Minister Tim Groser and (increasingly) Energy Minister Gerry Brownlee.
Jury's out: Anne Tolley's performance as Education Minister; Shane Jones' chances of becoming Labour's next leader.
Once were farmyard roosters, now feather dusters award: Act's Rodney Hide and the Maori Party's Hone Harawira.
Missing in action: The Greens' new co-leader, Metiria Turei; the Greens in general; large chunks of Labour's front bench.
Gone - but not forgotten: The Greens' Sue Bradford.
Gone - and already forgotten: National's Richard Worth.

The Saturday politics feature will return when politicians do next month.