John Armstrong: Goff needs to show he's the leader

Phil Goff must do two things at this weekend's Labour Party conference.

He must use his keynote speech on Sunday to firmly stamp his identity on the party. That is not as easy as it sounds.

Delegates will not want to hear him trying to raise his profile or reinvent himself by questioning the legacy of the Helen Clark-Michael Cullen duopoly.

But he needs to flag that Labour is moving on from that era.

So far, it has been difficult to discern much difference in Labour's direction or emphasis since Goff took charge last November.

Sunday's speech will be critical in changing that perception - and not before time. It will spell out Goff's priorities as leader. There will be nothing earth-shattering.

But the speech and the reception it gets from delegates will be important in reinforcing Goff's authority as leader - something which was lacking when he got the job more or less by default.

To draw a distinction between his leadership and that of his predecessor, Goff will highlight the last Government's successes, but couple that with an admission that Labour did make mistakes.

The rationale for this public confession is that the party cannot move forward until it has drawn a line under the past.

Labour is hoping what will be its last act of post-election penance will be the first step in the party reconnecting with voters who have shut it out of their consciousness.

If Goff can get that message across - and his speech has been moved from the leader's traditional Saturday afternoon time-slot to Sunday morning to capture that night's more attentive television news audience - then Labour strategists will be well pleased.

The second thing Goff must do is eradicate the notion that he is a stop-gap leader destined to be replaced after he loses the next election. That will require a performance of inspirational quality.

There is no immediate threat to Goff's leadership. There is no one else (yet) in the caucus who could do the job any better - and probably no one who would currently want it.

What Goff must avoid is getting into a self-perpetuating vicious cycle where bad polls prompt questions about his leadership which results in more bad polls which finally get the wheels of the tumbril rolling in his direction.

Goff is too good a politician not to be aware of that danger. But he faces abnormal circumstances. The John Key-led Government continues to soar in the polls at levels unprecedented for a new Administration in recent New Zealand political history.

Meanwhile, Goff's rating as preferred prime minister, though yet to go through the floor, is at skirting-board level, while Key's is somewhere up near the ceiling.

The one bright spot - and the one that will be waved in front of delegates in Rotorua this weekend - was Labour's comprehensive victory in the Mt Albert byelection.

The failure of the Greens to make inroads into Labour's vote will be viewed as particularly heartening.

It suggests that Labour's core support will not fracture and decamp to the minor parties - National's fate in the 2002 election.

But Goff needs more than Labour's core vote to force Labour back into contention in 2011. He needs to recapture the middle ground, which continues to be in cosy embrace with Key.

Just how Labour does that will be the talking point in Rotorua. There are no easy answers. To borrow from Mike Moore, Goff's priority this weekend is simply to keep hope alive.