Fran O'Sullivan: Taking National's temperature an offer too tempting to refuse

Anne Tolley's tertiary education portfolio was given to Steven Joyce (right), and Nick Smith lost the lead climate change negotiating role to Tim Groser (left). Photos / Supplied, Sarah Ivey

Disclosure: It's not often a professional journalist gets asked to reveal their voting intentions, which Cabinet Ministers they rate - or, most tellingly, disclose which talking point they associate with which particular political party - all as part of market research for the governing National Party.

But this week I was randomly selected by National's pollsters Curia Market Research to do just that.

Usually, I give phone canvassers a brusque "No". (There are only so many times you can give a polite response to people who want to sell you devices to extract the warm air from your roof space and so forth). But because Curia polls for National, I played along.

The timing of the poll was instructive.

On Monday, Prime Minister John Key announced his mini-Cabinet reshuffle. Anne Tolley's tertiary education portfolio was given to rising star Steven Joyce. Environment Nick Smith lost the high-profile lead climate change negotiating role to Trade Minister Tim Groser, who in turn shed his conservation portfolio so he had more time for his overseas roles.

Tolley is clearly out of her depth and Smith has been overloaded with demanding portfolios including ACC. But irrespective of their effective demotions, the Prime Minister left their front-bench positions intact.

But behind the scenes Curia has been deputed to take the temperature by asking Kiwis to rate the performance of the front bench. It's a fair bet that Key, Economic Development Minister Gerry Brownlee, Commerce Minister Simon Power, Health Minister Tony Ryall, Police Minister Judith Collins and Attorney-General Chris Finlayson will have achieved relatively high ratings on the way they perform their roles.

Finance Minister Bill English will likely have been marked down, not through lack of performance, but because of the flak he copped over the ministerial housing scandal.

Nick Smith is likely to have been marked down over his combative approach to handling the controversial ACC changes. In Tolley's case, her very invisibility in the role will have caused many to mark her down.

The intriguing aspect of this particular poll is respondents were also asked to rate the performance of two second-bench Cabinet Ministers: Foreign Minister Murray McCully and Joyce, who holds the transport and communications portfolios. Opinion was not sought as to the merits of the remainder of the 20-strong Cabinet. This suggests that Key may well be thinking about shuffling his front-bench to bring forward proven performers.

Both McCully and Joyce are proving to be able ministers.

McCully is applying his proven strategic skills in the international arena and has forged excellent relationships with his foreign counterparts. Joyce has strong managerial skills and importantly gets things done.

Tolley is such a weak link that it would make sense to dump her from the front row. But neither McCully nor Joyce can turn on the verbal ferocity which Smith displays on a good day and which makes him an asset for attack-mode politics.

What the Curia poll results will do is provide Key with greater confidence that he can take the public with him when he does finally shift Cabinet rankings - even if those who miss out disapprove. I also got the sense that Curia is road-testing the "party's talking points" - that is the messages that Key repeatedly uses to ram home his strategies.

This week's poll asked respondents to say which party they associated with particular attributes such as "better at ensuring jobs", "strong on crime", "does best for New Zealand in international forums" - and so forth.

What was notable about the highly selective list of attributes is that they appeared designed to push public opinion towards National - not elicit responses which would steer punters towards Labour.

For instance, there was no question seeking respondents to match a political party to the message as when Phil Goff this week set out to associate with Labour: "Looks after the interests of the many - not the few".

On February 9, Key will outline his programme for the year when Parliament reopens.

National's plans to grow the economy and broaden the tax base so it can fund cuts to company and personal taxes will be outlined. But the exact detail will not be revealed until English unveils his next Budget.

Inside sources suggest the Government is already testing the water by polling on various options such as raising GST and whacking property investors.

Helen Clark was frequently slagged for her poll-driven approach to politics. But Key's National Government is every bit as poll-driven and much more sophisticated in its application of the dark arts.

Yesterday I invited David Farrar - who runs Curia - to comment on this week's poll and what was behind the National motivations. Farrar declined.

Farrar also runs the popular Kiwiblog and has been tipped as a possible panel member for the upcoming Agenda series on TV3. Maybe he will be more forthcoming on television.