KEY POINTS:
John Key's strategy to present himself as a "renovator" not a "revolutionary" is paying dividends in the political polls.
Key wants voters to see him as a "safe pair of hands" whom they can trust and "not put it all at risk", the slogan Labour successfully used at the 2005 election to undermine Don Brash's prospects by playing up fears of a hidden agenda.
The more Labour undermines Key in a similar way, the greater he will be tempted to play safe.
But what New Zealand really needs from this prospective prime minister is a signal he also has the courage to take a "buck stops here" approach and take potentially unpopular decisions if they are necessary in this country's long-term interest.
The election (reminder here Michael Cullen) is not simply about who holds power. The next Government (of whichever stripe) will have to use its power to make significant changes.
"Power for powers' sake" will ensure New Zealand stays on its current focus-group driven downhill track as was demonstrably obvious in Treasury papers showing Cullen ignored key warnings over illegality when he effectively blocked the Auckland Airport sale.
This week, Key portrayed National as "leaders of the future" as he rolled out a plan to invest $1.5 billion in New Zealand's broadband infrastructure.
The Government has already broken Telecom's internal broadband monopoly. But Key grabbed the political high-ground ahead of any Budget funding towards a new trans-Tasman sea cable that will also break Telecom's effective external monopoly. This is smart politics.
It is also a sign that Key has made headway against economic conservatives within National's caucus who oppose Government infrastructure spending, and, the dynamic tax policies he favours which might make a difference to New Zealand's prospects.
The reaction to Key's announcement was instructive. The EPMU said Key's policy was a "step in the right direction". But it was concerned the task might be impossible given the current skills shortage.
The EPMU's Andrew Little argued the shortage was in part a result of National's decision to can industry training in the 1990s. But Little's reality check - that his members could easily get wage increases of 50 per cent or more by "crossing the ditch" - was disingenuous.
The aspiring Labour party president knows the current Government has had almost nine years to arrest the trend. What Little's response demonstrates is the inherent conflict of interest that will result if he pushes to hold the top leadership roles simultaneously.
The accepted political wisdom suggests that all Key has to do to win the election is to play safe and avoid any tough issue (particularly matters of principle) that Helen Clark could use to drive a wedge between him and the voters.
Since Key became National's leader the party has successfully neutralised electorally divisive issues such as Iraq, the nuclear policy and privitisation by adopting a "me too" approach. It's also adopted many of Labour's flagship policies: KiwiSaver, the Cullen Fund, Working for Families and making student loans interest-free for graduates who stay home.
National says its own economic plan boils down to ongoing personal tax cuts, "disciplined" Government spending "so interest rates track down not up", curbing the rise in head office bureaucracy, dealing with regulatory and compliance issues that smother businesses and families; improving education standards and investing in infrastructure.
But these longer-term strategies will not be enough to turn the economic tide back in New Zealand's favour. Australia is not standing still. It will continue to be a major drawcard for Kiwis as Kevin Rudd's Government sets its own economic reform.
In November, New Zealanders will be hurting. The economy is at a tipping point. Inflationary pressures will not reduce quickly. Rising fuel, food and power costs will see to that.
These will be exacerbated next year as the greenhouse emissions trading regime continues to bite.
Already economists are predicting jobs losses of up to 60,000 over the next two years, and a spate of mortgagee sales as the house price bubble deflates.
This suggests that an incoming National Government will be confronted with tough decisions as the fiscal purse tightens.
New Zealand elections are essentially presidential style. It's not National's leaders of the future that will be the main voting drawcard but Key himself.
His natural affability and innate optimism are a bonus compared to Clark's more dour presentation. But the Prime Minister has a well-developed killer instinct. If Key can't say what he would do on attaining power Clark will make mincemeat of him.
This makes the election a contest of who displays short-term tactical leadership not simply a plan for the future.
This suggests if Clark can create distrust in Key's ability to handle the more immediate crises she will be able to pare back National's lead.
