KEY POINTS:
Proportional representation was adopted in this country 15 years ago to give powerful voice to a wider range of public opinion. So far the system has put more parties into Parliament but it has not ensured that parties reflect their voters' views when a Government is formed. This year the monthly Herald-DigiPoll surveys have begun asking each party's supporters for their most preferred coalition. The results are interesting.
New Zealand First's voters, for instance, would prefer National over Labour by 90.9 per cent to 9.1 per cent. All voters for United Future would prefer the party to back National. Yet NZ First and United Future have kept Labour in power this term.
Voters for the Maori Party have registered the greatest change. In January, none of them wanted the party to help National form a government; last month 42.9 per cent of them would prefer that it did so. The shift may owe much to leader John Key's embrace of Maori activists at Waitangi.
Admittedly, the samples of minor party supporters are tiny; the polls are so dominated at present by the two main parties that the results would allow National to govern alone. But not even National entertains the thought that the election result will be as clear cut. Smaller parties gain more exposure during the campaign and several are likely to figure in the post-election calculations.
The Maori Party certainly will do so. Though it has gained only 1.5 per cent in our latest nationwide poll, a separate DigiPoll survey for TVNZ's Marae programme suggests the party will win all seven Maori electorates. United Future's leader, Peter Dunne, should retain his party's foothold in Parliament and Winston Peters will doubtless find a popular cause to rescue NZ First. So much for the theory that National will win the election but want for allies afterwards. One or two minor party leaders might be reluctant to deal with National but their supporters clearly are open to the idea.
Minor parties are not the only ones who ought to pay more attention to their supporters' preferences when it comes to forming a government. The largest number of National voters (30.2 per cent) name NZ First their preferred partner, followed by 21.8 per cent for United Future and surprisingly large minorities for the Greens and the Maori Party.
Labour voters much prefer the Greens (42 per cent) to NZ First (34.6 per cent) and very few of them, under 4 per cent, have much time for United Future. Yet Helen Clark has much preferred a governing arrangement with Mr Peters and Mr Dunne than with the Greens.
MMP has carried a cost to democracy. While a broader range of public opinion is now represented in Parliament, the public no longer directly elects a government. After an election parties that have won seats have a completely free hand in the negotiations that decide the composition of the government.
It would not seem too difficult for the MMP ballot paper to invite voters to nominate a preferred partner much as our poll has done, but that is unlikely to happen. Party leaders like the latitude given them by the system at it stands, and enthusiasts for the electoral reform never minded that it made the process of choosing a government a little less democratic.
After every MMP election so far the party with the most seats has been able to govern, but the system does not guarantee that. We have yet to see whether the country will accept a government formed by parties placed second and third and there is no reason this year that it should. National has plenty of potential allies. Ask the voters.
