KEY POINTS:
For some time, National Party energy spokesman Gerry Brownlee has been keen to contrive an energy crisis. It is an obvious means of further discomforting a Government that is reeling on a number of fronts. A fortnight ago, Mr Brownlee accused Energy Minister David Parker of having "his fingers firmly crossed behind his back" and ignoring the reality of emptying hydro lakes. This week, he saw the announcement of an energy-savings campaign as the chance to ram home the message. "So there is a power crisis after all," he proclaimed. Never mind that there was scant support for such a notion. Mr Brownlee's somewhat constrained view of the world meant politicking must take precedence, even if that meant panicking people unnecessarily.
Mr Parker insists there is no crisis. The savings campaign is, he says, "just another step along the way when you have a dry winter". Mr Brownlee would doubtless say the minister was playing politics in trying desperately to present a favourable picture. That could be a reasonable assumption. Unfortunately for Mr Brownlee, those best equipped to analyse the power situation and to assess the likelihood of blackouts are squarely of Mr Parker's view.
Take Patrick Strange, the chief executive of national grid operator Transpower, which, with the Electricity Commission, is co-ordinating the power industry's response to the threatened shortages. "The chance of ongoing blackouts is basically very, very low. There are hundreds of measures you can take ahead of that," he says. Or take Contact Energy, the owner of hydro stations on the Clutha. It says power shortages caused by low lake levels are "very unlikely". Further, it describes the energy-savings campaign, which will start on Sunday if there is no heavy rain before then in the hydro storage lakes area, as appropriate.
Both organisations have no overarching reason to play down the seriousness of the situation. They are not motivated to avoid "letting on", as Mr Brownlee would have it. They appreciate that this country is now less reliant on hydro-power than was the case during the crisis in 1992. There are, however, caveats to their reassurances. A sudden breakdown at a couple of major generating plants could activate a crisis, particularly if Huntly were involved. So, too, longer term, could, in Dr Strange's words, "the mother of all droughts". Nothing approaching such a drought is predicted. The more likely scenario is a resumption of normal winter rainfall, starting with brief heavy falls in the Southern Lakes district tomorrow and Friday.
If rain does not eventuate, there are, as Dr Strange suggests, many steps that can be taken to avert blackouts. An obvious solution is to strike a deal with Rio Tinto, the operator of the Bluff smelter, to limit power use. The smelter consumes 15 per cent of the country's electricity output and production there was cut back during the 1992 crisis. Other options include legislation to allow the temporary lowering of minimum lake levels (also contemplated in 1992), firing up further production at the previously mothballed New Plymouth station, and opening Kawerau's new geothermal plant two months ahead of schedule.
In tandem with any of these options, the Government would have to start a far more thorough savings campaign, including the likes of savings targets. These were absent from the electricity industry-funded initiative announced on Monday, a fact that reinforced the industry's relatively benign view of the the situation and the steps that needed to be taken.
Contrary to what Mr Brownlee asserts, there were no mixed messages in that announcement. People were not, as he would have it, being asked to save power at the same time as being told there was nothing to worry about. They were being told that, as always in times of uncertainty, prudence is best.
