KEY POINTS:
Sooner or later, possibly as soon as November, New Zealand could have just four political parties in Parliament: the main two, the Maori Party and the Greens. Those are the only parties built on foundations likely to outlast the career of an individual politician. The Maori Party has the benefit of seats reserved for distinct Maori representation while the Greens have consistently collected more than 5 per cent of the popular vote.
Both "minor" parties face a dilemma as this year's election approaches. Should they align themselves with one of the main parties before the election, or should they keep their options open for post-ballot negotiations? The difficulty for both is that their natural partner at present is Labour. The vast majority of Maori voters give their party vote to Labour and most Green voters seem to be on Labour's side of the main divide.
But Labour has not given much loyalty to either of them during its years in power. Both have been cold-shouldered in Labour's preference for deals with centrists Winston Peters and Peter Dunne, whose voters are mainly on National's side. Now that the tide has turned, neither Maori nor the Greens sound inclined to offer Labour a lifeline.
The Greens' conference in Auckland at the weekend gave the Government a lashing over its softening on greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental concerns. Labour had "lost its guts", said co-leader Russel Norman. "Principle has surrendered to politics." This time, he said, they were "not going to be anyone's lackey". They would assess Labour on its policies. "If they make progress on sustainability and fairness we will work with them, if they don't, we won't."
He did not offer the same possibility of working with National. The Greens, like the Maori MPs, obviously calculate that they will lose too many of their supporters if they openly contemplate a post-election deal that would put National in power.
Their problems would be solved if the election is as decisive as opinion polls have been for some time. If National gets more than 50 per cent of the vote it will not need to deal with anyone, and if Mr Peters, Mr Dunne and Rodney Hide win electorates, National will have more amenable partners in any case. But the Greens and Maori need to be prepared for the possibility that they could have to decide which party forms the next government.
Green leaders told their conference they are considering talking to the Maori about a joint strategy for their post-election negotiations. Together the two parties already hold 10 seats and should win more with Labour at a low ebb. The Maori Party looks capable of collecting all Maori seats this time and if the Greens cannot win 10 per cent of the national vote they have only themselves to blame.
Despite their durability, the Greens should be a stronger party in this country. Environmental values are widely held and can offer a political identity outside the normal social divide. The party in our Parliament, however, has not offered a separate identity, it adheres to a left-wing view of environmentalism, opposed to free trade, preferring public ownership to private property, distracted by issues it calls social justice.
A broader Green Party would build some conservation projects on private property rights and recognise the power of market forces to ensure resources are used sustainably. A party of that stamp would draw support from across the spectrum and could contemplate dealings with any government.
The Green Party needs to move out of left field and become a central player.
