KEY POINTS:
It may have been purely coincidental that John Key made his first visit to Scott Base this week. There was, however, a symbolism of sorts in his presence there in the lead-up to next Tuesday's first anniversary of his leadership of the National Party. Mr Key has spent distinct segments of the past 12 months on ice, out of the public eye. He has been working away at his weaknesses. This has been necessary as he, a relative novice, sought to cram knowledge on a wide range of issues, politics and Parliament. Next year, there will be no such choice. He must not only become a high-profile leader but confront a challenge above all others.
So far, Mr Key has acquitted himself well. When he took over from Don Brash, there was no question about the confidence, freshness and pragmatism that he would bring to the job. But there were immediate doubts about his relationship with his deputy, the experienced Bill English, and his ability to forge a strong, disciplined parliamentary team. In those respects, the doubters have been proven wrong. His poll ratings have been strong, his team cohesive. Equally, the arranged marriage with Mr English has been successful, thanks in no small part to the deputy's willingness to shoulder a heavy policy and parliamentary burden.
Nevertheless, Mr Key's inexperience has been on show from time to time. There were the self-inflicted mishaps, such as his statement that the war in Iraq was over, plus party gaffes, perhaps most notably over the removal of the cap on GPs' fees. These gave critics the ammunition to suggest Mr Key was a lightweight who continued to lack prime ministerial authority. Yet he did score points for his emphasis on what works, rather than ideological posturing. A particular success was his fashioning of a compromise on the anti-smacking legislation.
It is also apparent that Mr Key will not fall into the same traps as his predecessor. Dr Brash was easy prey for a Prime Minister boasting a formidable grasp of the minutiae of policy. Mr Key has better political instincts and should know that if he wants to avoid the same fate, he must be able to react quickly and cogently on a wide range of issues. Listening and seeking to ensure mistakes are not repeated have been major priorities during his time on ice.
His approach has reaped a healthy reward. In May, in a TV3 poll, Mr Key pushed Helen Clark off her throne as preferred Prime Minister, a position she had held unassailed for eight years. More recently, a Herald-DigiPoll survey suggested National had enough support to govern alone. There is little chance that will be the situation on election night next year, however. Even under the first-past-the-post election system, National's 1990 landslide win did not achieve 50 per cent of the vote.
Mr Key's ultimate challenge, therefore, is to forge ties with minor parties if he is to take a National-led coalition to claim the reins of power. The Prime Minister has mastered this facet of MMP government. National has been a slow learner. Mr Key needs to have firm ties in place before the election, thereby reassuring potential National voters that the party will have partners that allow it to govern. Policy-wise, he has gone to considerable lengths to put National on middle ground. Now, he must show a similar impulse towards potential allies. National's relationship with the Maori Party has improved noticeably but the most logical partners (Act apart) remain United Future and New Zealand First. There has been animosity between the latter party and National. Mending that and other bridges will be the crucial test of Mr Key's unproven potential.
