KEY POINTS:
You can never write off Winston Peters. That well worn cliche is trotted out by commentators at every election. Except, this election, I believe at last we can write off Peters. I suspect even he is no longer confident of ever again being "happy as the MP for Tauranga" and at age 63, he is wistfully eyeing the prospect of retirement from politics in October.
National has just selected its candidate for Tauranga, Simon Bridges, the party's electorate chairman and a Crown prosecutor. He is half Peters' age.
Bridges' youth neatly underlines the fact that Peters is a political dinosaur, a throw-back to the era of his mentor and role model, Rob Muldoon. Bridges was barely born when Muldoon was Prime Minister and Winston was first on the hustings.
That National is willing to put up someone more than just a lame stooge means it is serious about winning the electorate and it is confident Peters and New Zealand First are dog tucker.
Even just a few months ago National pussyfooted around any issue involving Peters, anxious not to annoy him should it need his support to form a government. Now, armed with poll results that show it is theoretically set for a huge swag of votes and New Zealand First is consistently unable to get anywhere near the 5 per cent trigger point to get into the House, National is willing to go in for the kill.
The eccentric Bob Clarkson won the seat last time only by the small margin of just over 700 votes but the fact Tauranga was willing to elect someone as weird as Clarkson shows how desperate locals were to get rid of Peters. Unless Peters can come up with compromising Polaroids of his opponent in flagrante delicto with some furry woodland critter, expect Bridges to win by a much-healthier margin. Actually, remembering that Bridges is a lawyer and Crown prosecutor I should hastily point out that I am not suggesting he has any peccadillos and any inference of the kind is sincerely regretted. Why is it that any media coverage of any issue involving Peters usually carries a vague whiff of potential litigation?
There is an air of desperation about the New Zealand First leader these days, as if he senses his old magic is no longer working. He and his party have repeatedly tried to pull the race card, particularly on immigration, but for once have found little response from the electorate.
However, it does not stop Peters having a knee-jerk reaction any time anyone mentions foreigners in a positive way.
Last week the Department of Labour's immigration specialist, Rob Hodgson, told a Wellington conference that migrants were four times more valuable to the economy than people who were born here. He said immigrants contributed more than $8.1 billion to the economy in 2006, and used only $4.1 billion in benefits and services. By contrast, folk born here contributed $24.6 billion but swallowed a massive $21.92 billion goodies from the state. That meant each migrant contributed $3547 to the country, while a native-born Kiwi added only $915.
Peters appeared to burst a blood vessel at this news, attacking Hodgson's statements as "moronic". Defying logic and mathematics, he clamed the conference had been "fed some ridiculous nonsense" and immigrants carried hidden costs linked to infrastructure, education, health and social services. He seems to have overlooked the fact that New Zealanders born here carry the same hidden costs in infrastructure, etc, and even if you factor these figures into Hodgson's equation, immigrants are still worth four times the average Kiwi's contribution to the economy.
Peters seems unable to comprehend the statistics that show migrants have a higher rate of employment, higher incomes, pay more tax and are less likely to go to prison or get a social services benefit than the average Kiwi.
His anti-Asian rhetoric, which was so politically advantageous in the 1990s, is increasingly falling on deaf ears. Over the past couple of decades, New Zealanders have come into much greater contact with their Asian neighbours and no longer fear them.
Stymied by the electorate's refusal to join him in paranoia, Peters finds Labour has stolen his other trusty weapon - a strong stand against foreign investment. Labour's insistence on blocking the sale of Auckland Airport shares to the Canadian Pension Plan and its uneconomic decision to buy back the railways whipped the ground from under his feet. He can no longer trot out his tired claim that New Zealand First is the only party opposed to "selling the family silver".
He will campaign hard and it will get vicious, but this election is set to be Peters' swansong.
