How they tip it tomorrow

A West Auckland voting booth will have its powers of prediction put to the test tomorrow when the Vardon Rd neighbourhood heads to the ballot box.

The Herald has been following the political sentiment of the community which cast its 1996 votes at St Paul's Hall in almost exact proportion to the party percentages in the first MMP election.

Most of the Green Bay residents who have featured regularly in the Herald during the campaign have attracted the attention of local candidates Marie Hasler (National) and David Cunliffe (Labour).

Mr Cunliffe held a meeting on Wednesday night in the hall and won the backing of two of the Herald's feature residents.

The campaign swayed two previously undecided voters to Labour, but the other five regularly featured said it confirmed their original intention.

Here is their final say.

Dave Thomas Voting: Labour for electorate, party.

Original choice: Undecided.

Why? "I think for the country right now what Labour has promised has to be better for those worse off than me.

"I'm okay - I'm 50, got a good home, good family, good job. But a lot of people out there are not being looked after by the Employment Contracts Act.

"Offering me $10 extra a week [National's promised tax cuts] is not what the country needs."

Who will win? Labour, "maybe with the Alliance."

Robina Thomas Voting: Labour for electorate, party.

Original choice: Undecided.

Why? "Labour is very strong on apprenticeships and education - there is more for the average family."

Who will win? Labour/Alliance.

Christine McGonagle Voting: National for electorate, party.

Original choice: National.

Why? "I feel that if we changed Government with some of the things Labour is going to do we would be going backwards. It's like a balancing act at the moment, but some good has been done and, if all that is going to be reversed, how much will that cost?"

Who will win? "I think probably Labour with the Alliance, but I hope I'm wrong."

Pat Willy Voting: National for electorate, party.

Original choice: National.

Why? "I have always been satisfied with what National has done and I think Jenny Shipley is a good leader. She's decisive, she won't be swayed. She's got a touch of Margaret Thatcher about her.

"As soon as Helen Clark said 'unions' she lost me. They plagued me in my younger days with strikes."

Ross Dominey Voting: Labour for electorate, Alliance for party.

Original choice: Labour/Alliance.

Why? "I have met the Labour candidate [David Cunliffe] and he's a good guy, very capable and well qualified. Jim Anderton has put forward some things I really think are very good, like post shops acting as banks.

"I think it's diabolical just days before an election that you have a minister of Parliament [Tuariki Delamere] involved in a bloody debacle - it's obvious the Government is unsuitable to remain in office."

Graeme Mitchell Voting: National for electorate, party.

Original choice: National/Act.

Why? "We are a growing country; we seem to be doing all right under National. I think a change of Government now would be disastrous.

"Labour is going to tear up the Employment Contracts Act, bring back unions, raise taxes. They are taking a big step backwards. Act is going along pretty much the same lines as National, but I think it has got some crazy things like the flat tax rate - I would like to think so, but it wouldn't work."

Who will win? Labour with the Alliance, "but I think it will be very, very close."

Jan Willy Voting: National for electorate, party.

Original choice: National.

Why? "My main thing is: let's not keep on with handouts, let's work for ourselves and get on to it and create jobs. I prefer the status quo and I accept it's not perfect, but my mortgage is manageable, and I worry that will change [under Labour]. I don't want a move to more handouts like parental leave - at the end of the day it's your decision to have children."

Who will win? "It looks like Labour and the Alliance, and I will be very depressed."