Hamilton byelection: Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern makes last-minute visit to rally Labour troops

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has made a last-minute visit to the byelection battleground of Hamilton West in a final effort to rally Labour supporters on the last day of campaigning.

Today was the final chance for the 12 byelection candidates to campaign before tomorrow, when voting closes at 7pm, as per Electoral Commission rules.

Ardern travelled from Auckland this afternoon to visit Labour byelection candidate Georgie Dansey at the party’s Hamilton base.

Roughly 40 Labour supporters had gathered in a last-ditch effort to get votes, hitting the phones to encourage Hamilton West residents to vote for Dansey.

09 December 2022 On the day before voting closes in the Hamilton West byelection, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern visited Labour volunteers and supporters. Photo / Mike Scott

Among those on cold-calling duty were Labour’s Hamilton East MP Jamie Strange and list MP Helen White.

Ardern told the crowd how proud she was of Dansey and the wider campaign team.

“Georgie, my huge gratitude to you, we’re so proud of you, you’ve just been an exceptional [candidate] and I’m so proud of the team that’s supported you.

“I’ve seen the numbers, as a team you’ve knocked [on] over 1000 doors, you’ve made over 3000 phone calls, it’s just been a huge effort.”

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern speaks with Hamilton West byelection candidate Georgie Dansey (right) and Hamilton East MP Jamie Strange. Photo / Mike Scott

It follows a Taxpayers’ Union/The Working Group Curia poll on Monday of 400 people that found 46 per cent of decided voters would choose National’s Tama Potaka, compared to Dansey’s 33 per cent and Act’s Dr James McDowall’s 12.

However, with 28 per cent of respondents of that poll yet to decide and voter turnout remaining low, Hamilton West’s future is up in the air until results arrive from 7pm on Saturday.

Ardern, who had made several visits to Hamilton over the byelection campaign period, commended Dansey’s persistence after the Te Awamutu gym owner dislocated her shoulder while talking to a voter.

“I was just saying never before have I ever heard of someone literally dislocating a shoulder whilst door-knocking, such was your energy and vigour on the doorstep,” Ardern exclaimed.

“It just shows that you’ve put your whole body on the line.”

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern received a rapturous reception from Labour faithful at the party's Hamilton base. Photo / Mike Scott

Speaking to media, Ardern noted voter turnout had been lower than in past byelections but she wouldn’t make predictions whether that would benefit Labour.

“We know that those who tend to vote more progressively tend not to vote as frequently, that’s why we’re doing everything we can to encourage people to get out and use [their] vote.

Ardern wouldn’t speculate on how relevant tomorrow’s result would be in assessing Labour’s chances in next year’s general election, saying byelections were “always unpredictable”.

Many people who spoke to the Herald about the byelection either didn’t know it was on or did not intend to vote.

Hamilton West resident Gary Burnan, 57, said he wouldn't be voting in the byelection. Photo / Mike Scott

Gary Burnan, 57, said he would not be voting because he “wasn’t confident in any of the parties”.

Burnan, who works in sales in the building supplies industry, indicated he had become disengaged with New Zealand politics amid the rising cost of living.

“New Zealand’s becoming too expensive to live in currently,” he said.

“They need to look after the little person.”

Hamilton West resident Craig was just about to enter a voting location when he was approached by the Herald.

He considered the byelection a “waste of time” and a “waste of money”, criticising former MP Dr Gaurav Sharma for resigning and triggering a byelection.

“He couldn’t have just stayed in Parliament until the election [next year]?”

While the 47-year-old was unsure even moments before casting his vote, Craig said he would likely vote for Georgie Dansey because she was the Labour Party’s candidate.

“National’s a clown show and voting for Sharma would be a waste of a vote.”

Staci Smith, owner of tattoo parlour Poison Studios in central Hamilton, said she knew “absolutely nothing” about the byelection and did not plan to vote “because I just don’t care enough”.

The 36-year-old said she had voted for Labour in the 2020 general election, but knew little about her local representative.

However, by the end of her conversation with the Herald, Smith said she would consider voting tomorrow.

Earlier today, Dansey and Potaka - alongside their campaign volunteers - braved slightly unpleasant overcast conditions at Hamilton’s busy intersections, waving promotional signs in a last-ditch attempt to motivate voters.

Labour byelection candidate Georgie Dansey waving to commuters on Friday morning. Photo / Mike Scott

Dansey said she was feeling the toll of a fast-paced campaign, but remained in good spirits.

“We’ve been sign-waving every morning and afternoon this week and [it’s] just been an awesome experience, so [it’s] wonderful to get into the community and meet so many people but also an exhausting experience so [I’m] looking forward to tomorrow night and having some results.”

She acknowledged she was “feeling” her shoulder this morning and would retire from sign-waving for the day and would transition to other forms of campaigning for the remainder of the day.

Dansey was supported by 11 of her fervent volunteers, who displayed plenty of enthusiasm as they received regular honks of support from passing commuters, amid the odd pieces of abuse.

Dansey said she had identified voter fatigue following local body elections as a key feature of the Hamilton West byelection, adding there had also been confusion over whether residents would receive voting papers in the mail.

“I hope that we’re getting our people out, we’ve had some really effective conversations in the last couple of days, letting people know where the polling booths are and so I hope that we can get that Labour vote out and have a strong result on Saturday.”

As of yesterday, 8770 residents out of the nearly 48,000 eligible people on the general electoral roll had voted in advance.

Fewer people had come out to vote compared to the Tauranga byelection earlier this year, which also attracted a low voter turnout.

Long-time Labour supporter Max Christophersen gives his trademark wave to commuters. Photo / Mike Scott

Max Christophersen, a long-time Labour supporter and member of Dansey’s campaign team, commended his candidate’s effort in a limited time.

“I think that for a person who came into this five or six weeks [ago], she’s done sensationally well,” he said of Dansey.

“If, in a low turnout, the people that have responded to us vote, we actually have a chance of winning this and that’s just a gut feeling.”

It was a particularly novel seeing Dansey’s signs plastered around town next to signs of fellow candidate and former Hamilton West MP Dr Gaurav Sharma, whose messy exit from Labour and subsequent resignation from Parliament forced the byelection.

Christophersen, who had worked under Sharma, recognised the impact his split with Labour could have on Dansey’s chances, but he estimated the former MP could draw voters away from National.

“Yes [Sharma is] going to damage us but my instinct is it’s 50-50, I think he’s going to take people of National and people of us, but I could be wrong.”

National’s Tama Potaka was found sign-waving in front of a shopping complex that included a superette, a liquor centre and a vape shop - the types of businesses he and National claimed had been improperly protected by the Government from retail crime.

Speaking to the Herald, Potaka said time away from his family during the campaign had been tough, but he was still full of energy ahead of tomorrow’s results.

“You get re-charged every day by the lives and energy of the people that you meet and I’ve been able to get really intimate with people which has been really motivating for me.

“Of course, being away from my whānau has been a bit of a challenge, but they’re here and they’re supportive of me.”

Potaka had been based in Auckland as chief executive of Auckland iwi Ngāi Tai ki Tāmaki before entering the byelection as National’s candidate and temporarily relocating to Hamilton.

Potaka has said previously he would permanently move to Hamilton should he win the byelection.

Asked today whether he would run for Hamilton West in next year’s general election if he didn’t win tomorrow, Potaka said he hadn’t yet made a decision.

“If I don’t win, I’ll reassess over the next couple of weeks and I’ll talk with my whānau, because they’re very influential in that decision-making process, and also the party but at the moment, I don’t know.”

National's Tama Potaka isn't taking anything for granted ahead of tomorrow's results. Photo / Mike Scott

Hamilton West, which had a reputation as a bellwether seat meaning it reflected general election results, had been kind to National in recent years, with National MP Tim Macindoe holding the electorate between 2008-2020 until Sharma’s victory amid surging Labour support during the Covid-19 pandemic.

A 1News-Kantar Public poll on Monday put National on 38 per cent up 1 point, Labour on 33 per cent, down 1 point.

Potaka wouldn’t give his thoughts on whether his losing in the byelection would be a bad omen ahead of next year’s election.

“I can’t opine on that right now, my head’s been in the space of listening to the people of Hamilton West and the key issues that they’re facing every day.”