KEY POINTS:
After three dramatic mixed-message polls in a week, National has seen its share of the vote erode, with the Green Party and ACT building strength.
The Morgan and TV3 polls on Friday showed a swing toward Labour, though the TV1 poll at the weekend had National holding strong.
As the average of the last six published polls, the NZPA rolling poll smooths fluctuations.
It showed National support at 48.2 per cent, one percentage point down in two weeks.
Labour was also down slightly, to 35.7 per cent with allies the Green Party strong at 6.8 per cent.
National's allies ACT climbed from 1.7 per cent support, to 2.0 per cent.
Translated into seats, it showed the Green Party post-election could have as many as eight MPs - two more than now - and ACT three, one more than in this Parliament.
If the NZPA poll was reflected in the November 8 election result, National with 60 seats and ACT with three would hold the balance of power in a 124-seat House.
Labour would take 45 seats, the Greens eight and the Progressive Party one - nine seats fewer than the National-ACT bloc. On October 1 the gap was 11 seats.
NZ First will have to win an electorate seat, or more than 5 per cent of votes cast to return to Parliament.
It is at 2.9 per cent on the party vote, and Tauranga electorate polling has leader Winston Peters behind National candidate Simon Bridges.
The NZPA rolling poll allocated the Maori Party six seats - based on current polls in the Maori electorate seats - and United Future just one.
NZPA rolling poll (with seats in brackets)*
October 15
Labour 35.7 (45)
National 48.2 (60)
NZ First 2.9 (0)
ACT 2.0 (3)
Greens 6.8 (8)
United Future 0.4 (1)
Maori Party 2.3 (6)
Progressives 0.0 (1)
October 1
Labour 36.1 (45)
National 49.2 (62)
NZ First 2.9 (0)
ACT 1.7 (2)
Greens 5.9 (7)
United Future 0.4 (1)
Maori Party 2.5 (6)
Progressives 0.0 (1)
September 17
Labour 36.4 (45)
National 50.1 (63)
NZ First 2.5 (0)
ACT 1.6 (2)
Greens 5.3 (7)
United Future 0.3 (1)
Maori Party 2.6 (6)
Progressives 0.0 (1)
September 3
Labour 35.3 (45)
National 49.8 (63)
NZ First 3.7 (0)
ACT 1.7 (2)
Greens 5.3 (7)
United Future 0.3 (1)
Maori Party 2.7 (6)
Progressives 0.0 (1)
- NZPA
