Government gets a reality check over benefits, spending cuts - Audrey Young

OPINION:

This is a transcript of Audrey Young’s subscriber-only Premium Politics newsletter. To sign up, click on your profile at nzherald.co.nz and select ‘Newsletters’. For a step-by-step guide, click here.

Welcome to the Politics Briefing. It is that awkward time of the post-election cycle when the defeated old Government is not willing to completely surrender as the new Government exercises its mandate to trash their rejected policies.

But the debates are not a complete rehash of the election campaign. By now, the public service has had time to research and give the Government a reality check on the impact of their policies, such as estimates of more children living in poverty over changes to social welfare benefits - up to 13,000 more.

Thomas Coughlan reports that on current forecasts, it would mean someone on a Jobseeker benefit would be $18.15 a week worse off by 2028, someone on single-parent support would be $25 a week worse off, and someone on a supported-living payment - received by people who are disabled or caring for disabled people - would be $35.11 a week worse off.

It’s also a time when any example of extravagant-looking spending is fair game in the face of public sector cuts. Such is the case with today’s story about Niwa’s new luxury Chevy utes that come with a hefty price tag - and apparently can tow Niwa’s big boats.

Finance and Public Service Minister Nicola Willis appeared at a select committee this week and talked about how National’s plans for cutting government spending have expanded since the election campaign.

At that stage, National identified 24 agencies for cuts of 6.5 per cent. Exemptions from the razor applied to Health, Education, the Education Review Office, Corrections and Oranga Tamariki. Now all government agencies have been included, and some - those with 50 per cent staffing increases since 2017 - have been asked to aim for 7.5 per cent. That includes Education, which was originally exempt.

PM hardens Israel stance

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon put his name to a very strong joint statement with Australian PM Anthony Albanese and Canadian PM Justin Trudeau cautioning Israel against any ground offensive in Rafah, where 1.5 million Palestinians are taking refuge. It would be “catastrophic”, they said. This latest joint statement follows another by the same trio in December, although the language has significantly hardened. Luxon was the one who initiated this statement - a sign that he is quickly finding his feet in foreign affairs.

I’ve done a piece marking the death of former top public servant Gerald Hensley. He remained engaged in important public debate and his voice will be missed. He was also an incredible raconteur and I’ve revived some of his most entertaining stories of his time working with Muldoon and Lange.

Quote unquote

“Thank you, Mr Speaker, and can I wish you a happy Valentine’s Day” - Ōtaki MP Tim Costley in Question 2 on Wednesday.

“We’ll move now to Question No. 3!” - The Speaker responds.

Micro quiz

Which MP told Newshub this week: “I walk my greyhound twice a day and she has less leaks than this Government”? (Answer below.)

Brickbat

National's MP for Mt Roskill, Carlos Cheung.

Reluctantly goes to Carlos Cheung, the new MP for Mt Roskill, for unwittingly breaching the debating chamber’s dress code yesterday. He walked in to listen to Green Party maiden speeches wearing a shirt and tie but no jacket. The mortified MP obliged after a chamber attendant asked him to leave and put one on.

Bouquet

Labour Party deputy leader Carmel Sepuloni. Photo / Brett Phibbs

Labour’s Carmel Sepuloni has been holding the Coalition’s feet to the fire over legislation going through the House to change the way social welfare benefit increases are calculated. The lesser increases will save the Government an estimated $670 million over four years.

Latest political news and views

Niwa utes: Crown-owned weather research institute Niwa is defending a $688,000 spend-up on four luxury petrol utes.

Spending cuts: Police Commissioner Andrew Coster won’t speculate on whether his organisation can achieve the Government’s desired 6.5 per cent cut in spending without axing staff.

Spending cuts II: The New Zealand Defence Force says it may have to defer necessary maintenance if it is required to cut spending by 6.5 per cent.

Spending cuts III: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has cut the amount ministers can spend on taxpayer-funded cars from $85,000 to $70,000.

Benefit changes: Benefit changes being legislated under urgency will mean people on the equivalent of a disability benefit and their carers will lose out on more than $2300 a year by 2028.

Landlord taxes: The new Government’s plan to allow landlords to deduct interest costs from their tax bills could be retrospective and trigger refunds, according to the IRD.

Child poverty: Officials have warned the Government that up to 13,000 New Zealand children will be pushed into poverty by 2028 as a result of benefit changes.

School truancy: Associate Education Minister David Seymour is eyeing a crackdown on parents whose children are frequently absent from school.

Israel-Hamas war: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has urged Israel against a planned military operation in Rafah, Southern Gaza, warning it would likely have “catastrophic” consequences.

Remembering Gerald Hensley: Former diplomat, historian, public servant and raconteur Gerald Hensley has died - but he leaves a rich trove of stories from an extraordinary career.

Opinion - Labour Party: Labour will never win back the working-class and middle-income voters who switched to National in 2023 until it offers real change, writes Matthew Hooton.

Analysis - Treaty issues: The Treaty of Waitangi has leapfrogged education to become one of the top three issues for voters, according to a new poll.

Quiz answer: Kieran McAnulty - but he should have said “fewer leaks”.

Audrey Young is the New Zealand Herald’s senior political correspondent. She was named Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards in 2023, 2020 and 2018.

For more political news and views, listen to On the Tiles, the Herald’s politics podcast.