Gatecrashers change the rules

By ANDREW LAXON

political reporter

Jeanette Fitzsimons has wiped the contented smiles off the faces of Helen Clark and Jim Anderton.

The Greens have gatecrashed LabourAlliance plans for a cosy two-way Coalition, and both parties will now have to consult - or at least go through the motions of consulting - their new partner.

But apart from that, the Greens' influence on the Coalition will be limited.

Assuming no further changes in the election result, they will have only six MPs compared with Labour's 50 and the Alliance's 10, and last night's delayed Coromandel win cost them any chance of joining the Coalition.

The Greens would be severely punished by their own supporters if they brought down a centre-left Government.

So the most likely consequence of the late change is occasional Green-tinged policy compromises and politically embarrassing Green sniping from the sidelines, egged on by Act and National.

The result is mixed news for the new Opposition. It may now have a better chance of portraying the Government as loony-left and unstable.

But the left-wing parties have doubled their majority, from six to 12 seats.

On specific policy issues, Green MPs will back decriminalisation of cannabis, which may go somewhere under this Government, and a one-off Christmas bonus for beneficiaries - which Labour has already ruled out.

The party will also try to push the Coalition on environmentally linked issues, including tariffs, fishing and roading.

Green co-leader Rod Donald predicted before the election - when the Greens hoped to be in a Coalition cabinet - that Green support for higher tariffs would lead to "a major battle, particularly with Labour."

But Prime Minister-designate Helen Clark indicated this week that Labour would not give way on the issue.

She described tariffs as a policy area in which the Alliance (and now the Greens) might publicly disagree with a decision made by the Labour-dominated cabinet.

A Green policy to turn up to 20 per cent of New Zealand's coastline into marine reserve could also put pressure on Labour, and would face strong opposition from the fishing industry.

Another Green policy calls for a five-year moratorium on new motorways. But the Coalition is unlikely to block long-awaited improvements such as completion of the Auckland motorway system.

Green policies favouring eco-taxes on carbon fuels and waste are likely to go into Labour's tax review - but are highly unlikely to come out again.

The party can also be expected to push Labour to stop field testing of genetically modified food crops, end all rimu logging, promote organic farming and increase funding for the Department of Conservation.

It can win the last two ... but everything else will be a lot harder.