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Prime Minister Helen Clark says Fiji's excuse for boycotting the Pacific Islands Forum this week is a red herring and predicts interim Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama will pay the cost at home.
Yesterday Commodore Bainimarama said Fiji would not be at the forum, blaming New Zealand's apparent refusal to allow him into the country for bilateral talks afterwards.
However, Helen Clark said the post-forum talks would be held in Niue itself on Friday - not Auckland - and she suspected the commodore was looking for an excuse.
"I think it speaks volumes that they're not prepared to come and be accountable to forum leaders. I think leaders are very keen to see the commitments that were made last time adhered to."
She expected Fiji's no-show would harden the resolve of leaders who wanted to hold Commodore Bainimarama to account for breaking a promise at last year's forum to hold elections by March 2009.
It might also take a toll on him in his homeland, she said - a boycott of the forum by former Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare in 2007 was one of the factors that resulted in his being deposed that year.
"Something like that can change the internal dynamic at home. That's certainly what appeared to happen in the Solomon Islands when other Solomons ministers and players saw their country was not at the leaders' table."
At his press conference yesterday, the commodore told the forum to keep its nose out of Fiji's business.
"The Pacific Forum needs to understand that we in Fiji will decide what is in our national interest in the short and long term. Outsiders cannot decide this for us."
He said he was "pressured" to agree to the March date at the last forum and had wanted more flexibility.
The forum's acting secretary-general, Feleti Teo, said his absence put leaders in the difficult position of making decisions without hearing directly from Fiji. "Obviously some mechanism needs to be found to get Fiji to re-engage. Not re-engaging is not an option the leaders are willing to entertain."
At his press conference, Commodore Bainimarama also said he would take over the finance portfolio after three Fiji Labour Party ministers pulled out of his interim Government on Sunday.
Helen Clark said the withdrawal of the three would weaken an already "tenuous" Government.
The three who left are Fiji Labour Party leader and interim Finance Minister Mahendra Chaudhry, interim Minister for Tourism Tom Ricketts and Local Government Minister Lekh Ram Vayeshnoi, also from Labour.
Niue Premier Toke Talagi, who takes over as forum chairman this week, yesterday received an apology from the commodore for his non-appearance.
Mr Talagi said that while it would be regrettable if the Fiji situation dominated the forum, Commodore Bainimarama's absence would allow leaders to focus on other issues of similar importance.
-additional reporting by John Andrews in Niue