Taiwanese Foreign Minister Lin Chia-lung wants to join Aukus Pillar 2. Photo / Thomas Coughlan
Taiwan’s new foreign minister is keen for the self-governing island nation to “participate and to contribute” to the second pillar of the Aukus submarine deal, something New Zealand is also exploring.
Answering questions from the Herald at a press conference in Taipei last week ahead of Taiwan’s national day, Lin Chia-lung said that regarding Aukus, “both the submarines and the second pillar countries, they are very important for Taiwan”.
“Taiwan welcomes such developments and to see them play a role in the Taiwan strait and Taiwan welcomes the lattice-like security and cooperation framework in the region as well,” Lin said, quoting the “lattice” language used by members of the Biden Administration to refer to its network of defence agreements in the region.
“For the second pillar [of Aukus], Taiwan hopes to participate and to contribute to the framework, especially when it comes to artificial intelligence or high tech. I think Taiwan has a role to play in the second pillar framework,” Lin said.
Taiwan’s representative to Australia has previously expressed an ambition to join Pillar 2.
Aukus is primarily a deal between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States to develop and build nuclear-powered but conventionally armed submarines for Australia. However, it has a second pillar that allows the three Aukus partners to partner up with other countries on projects to develop advanced technology in areas such as artificial intelligence, hypersonic missiles and quantum computing.
Non-Aukus countries must be invited to join the three Aukus partners on Pillar 2 projects. A joint statement for the third anniversary of the project noted Japan, Canada, New Zealand, and the Republic of Korea were being consulted with for “collaboration on advanced capabilities under Aukus pillar 2″.
New Zealand is exploring whether it wants to sign up, although it is yet to be formally invited. Foreign Minister Winston Peters said the Government is weighing up whether it is in the the national interest. In a speech in May, Peters talked up the benefits of joining noting it would keep New Zealand’s technologically in step with Australia, our only ally.
“For instance, if Australia adopts new advanced technologies what does that mean for New Zealand’s ability to communicate with our ally’s capabilities?” Peters warned.
“It would be irresponsible for us not to consider whether the $3.5 billion of taxpayer money spent, which former Minister of Defence Ron Mark and we secured in 2018, to purchase four P-8A Poseidon aircraft and replace our antiquated Hercules fleet with five new Hercules aircraft, will still be fit for purpose under Pillar 2′s technology advances,” he said.
Taiwan would be a formidable asset to the deal, given its expertise in advanced manufacturing. It produces over 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, however, the benefits of Taiwan’s cooperation may not outweigh the costs.
Aukus’ critics, including former New Zealand Prime Minister Helen Clark who, in a column written with former National and Act leader Don Brash, have described the agreement as “an explicitly anti-China military partnership between the United Kingdom, Australia and the United States”.
A successful application by Taiwan to join would likely strengthen this perception. Any move by Taiwan to join Pillar 2 would be controversial, given its troubled relationship with the People’s Republic of China, which lies just across the Taiwan Strait. The People’s Republic of China claims the island as its own, and its leader, President Xi Jinping has vowed to “reunify” the two Chinas, by force if necessary. There is some speculation that an invasion could come within the decade.
Wang Wenbin, China’s foreign ministry spokesman, described it as a “path of error and danger”.
US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell explicitly linked Aukus with a potential cross-strait confrontation between mainland China and Taiwan, saying the future Aukus submarines would “have enormous implications in a variety of scenarios, including in cross-strait circumstances”, however, it appears this view is not shared in Australia.
Foreign Minister Winston Peters would not comment on Taiwan’s aspirations to join Pillar 2.
“That’s to do with those people who are in Aukus. That is for them to decide, we are not a member of Aukus,” Peters told the Herald.
Lin noted that unlike other regional players such as Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia, Taiwan does not have a bilateral security treaty with the United States. Instead, its security is underwritten by the Taiwan Relations Act. The Act makes several commitments to supply Taiwan with weapons for self-defence, and commits the US to maintain the ability to help “resist” an attempt to capture Taiwan, but it stops short of a formal security guarantee.
Lin warned these security arrangements might be insufficient.
“There is no collective security framework akin to Nato in the Asia-Pacific region,” he said.
He said Taiwan’s “goal” was to “strengthen” the “lattice” of security agreements in the region “into a cohesive defence framework and we welcome support from security partners such as Aukus the quad, five eyes, and G7″.
It is not unknown for Taiwan to put its hand up for an agreement that is unlikely to be able to join in an attempt to assert its statehood. Taiwan applied to join the CPTPP trade deal shortly after the People’s Republic of China also tried to join.
New Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre Director and Victoria University Associate Professor Jason Young told the Herald the remarks “made sense” from Taiwan’s perspective, given the extent to which China is ramping up military exercises around the island.
“They will be seeking opportunities to develop security partnerships,” Young said.
“Officials in Beijing will not look favourably on the idea of Taiwan participating in Pillar 2 of Aukus and I would also be surprised if that would be something that would make sense for the Aukus partners,” Young said.
He said Taiwan joining Aukus would take America’s security relationship with Taiwan would be a “step further” than the Taiwan Relations Act, and perhaps a step too far.
“I haven’t seen any commentary out of the Aukus partners suggesting that would make sense for them,” Young said.
Taiwan joining Aukus would “change the dynamic of the grouping quite considerably”.
Young said that, Aukus aside, there was already “lots of cooperation” in areas such as artificial intelligence and tech between Taiwan and the US.
“Until there is any commentary from the Aukus partners on this, I think it is just Taiwan seeking any and every opportunity that they can have to strengthen their security partnerships at a time of heightened tension,” Young said.
University of Canterbury Professor Alex Tan told the Herald that while Taiwan “has a lot to offer” the Aukus deal, it was unlikely ever to be admitted.
“It is way too sensitive,” Tan said, noting Taiwan was already cooperating with the likes of the United States in less politically contentious ways like the exchange of technology.
“The problem for Taiwan is not about what they can contribute, it is what are the signals the current membership wants to give,” he said.
The author’s travel to Taiwan was assisted by the Taiwanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Thomas Coughlan is Deputy Political Editor and covers politics from Parliament. He has worked for the Herald since 2021 and has worked in the press gallery since 2018.
The New Zealand Defence force has a budget shortfall of $130 million.