Jonathan Milne: Right left behind in polls race

So much for the right-wing's celebrations at the election victory of Texan cowboy George W Bush.

Right here, right now, the right has little to celebrate.

In the past week, National has been desperate to persuade critics that it is coyly keeping all its trump cards up its sleeve for election year, unconcerned by the shrinking pile of poker chips on its side of the table.

A Herald-Digipoll last week had Labour 20 percentage points ahead; a TV3-TNS poll last night had it 14 points ahead. On either poll result, Labour would be able to govern alone.

National's leader Don Brash, while still polling better than his predecessor Bill English, needs to tip back his ten-gallon hat and show some confidence befitting his name - but instead he seems unable to decide his game plan.

When he stood up in Parliament last week and tried to explain why he was withdrawing his support for the Civil Union Bill, he lost one of his biggest assets: his image as a man of principle who would do what he thought right regardless of what the politicians surrounding him said or thought.

He may have wanted to appear tough, hardline, but he was overshadowed by the black-coated Johnny Cash-like figure of Destiny pastor Brian Tamaki, sitting above. Tamaki was the man in black, his every move causing a rustle to run round the gallery and the House below, Dr Brash merely the man in grey.

National is running out of coalition options, with Act in big trouble.

Act MP Stephen Franks' supporters warned during the leadership battle that party founder Roger Douglas would resign if Rodney Hide became leader. And sure enough, with Mr Douglas' resignation last week he made clear his dissatisfaction with the party becoming a "front-office for the Serious Fraud Office" rather than campaigning on classical liberal principles.

Mr Hide and Dr Brash are caught in the same bind: they would like to campaign on core policies like small government and tax cuts, but it does not win votes.

Helen Clark and Labour have extended their reach so far into centre-right territory - policies like deadlines on Treaty claims and clamping down on compensation for abuse of prisoners - that National and Act are cornered. All that is left is Destiny-style moral conservatism - but Mr Hide is socially liberal and Dr Brash is unconvincing.

On Friday, Dr Brash will return to National's core constituency when he recommits the party to company and personal tax cuts in a speech to party loyalists at the North Shore Stadium.

He will be accompanied by two local sidekicks: Murray McCully, who has been dragging him in the direction of populist pragmatism, and John Key, trying to focus on messages of tax cuts and small government.

Dr Brash is expected to promise to cut company tax to 30 per cent in the first term of a National-led government, and to go on to cut income tax for low to middle-income families. But already, across the card-table, finance minister Michael Cullen is hinting at tax changes to return money to business and assist families in saving for houses and retirement.

Dr Brash is keeping his cards to his chest and maintaining his poker face, but the suspicion is he is bluffing.