John Armstrong: National need not panic yet

Even though it is a psychological body blow, National MPs should not panic over today's shock Herald-DigiPoll which has the party plunging back into dog-tucker territory.

The frequent lag between the cut-and-thrust of daily politics and consequent shifts in public opinion suggests the slide in National's support down to an election-crippling 30 per cent is more a reflection of where the party was a month ago - largely invisible with its leader drowning in ridicule.

National has since revised its tactics to get back into the headlines by raising Don Brash's profile and staking out some key positions on core policy before Christmas to try to get people talking about National over the summer holidays.

Even if the party's renewed drive is successful - and National must inject some real excitement and sense of vision into its communications if people are to take any notice - it will take a while before that starts paying dividends in the polls.

The Orewa effect having dissipated, there are no more miracle cures for the main Opposition party fighting a highly pragmatic and largely blunder-free Government which is also the political beneficiary of an economic boom.

One consolation for National is that despite Labour hitting the magic 50 per cent mark in this poll, the fluctuations indicate an extremely volatile electorate capable of rapid shifts of allegiance in election year.

For example, in the Herald poll taken after last May's Budget, National enjoyed a nine percentage point lead over Labour among those earning between $33,000 and $52,000.

Six months on, Labour has turned that around and now has a remarkable 33-point lead in that crucial middle-income category, which National hopes to woo with yet-to-be-announced tax cuts.

However, such volatility is small comfort to National, which now finds itself falling behind Labour in every income category.

One big worry to National's strategists must be the way support for their party, which was slowly ebbing away following the surge sparked by Dr Brash's landmark speech on Maori matters, has seemingly turned into freefall.

The 20-point gap between Labour and National in the Herald poll comes after last weekend's Sunday Star-Times-BRC poll which had a 14-point gap which in turn followed a National Business Review-Phillips Fox poll three weeks earlier which showed an 11-point gap. The danger for National is that its support could subsequently slip below 30 per cent, long seen as its core minimum and Dr Brash's initial target when he took over as leader a year ago.

Not only would that be a morale crusher, resurrecting memories of Bill English's tenure, it could reactivate the vicious circle which saw National's vote dip lower and lower during the 2002 election campaign as conservative voters deserted the party because they realised it was not going to be able to form a government.

They flocked to United Future because that party was seen as best placed to moderate a minority Labour Government.

Ominously for National, United Future registered a noticeable gain in the Sunday Star-Times poll.

However, support for the minor parties is relatively static in the Herald poll. National is instead bleeding support to Labour - not its centre-right allies.

Labour will not be gloating, however as the poll will rekindle talk of Helen Clark being able to govern alone - talk Labour does not want to hear.

The possibility of Labour running a majority government was a turn-off for voters at the last election.

Helen Clark's line is that she still expects to be running a minority government after next year's elections. And it's a line she will stick to, no matter what the polls say.