Emissions can be cut cheaply, say Greens

New Zealand could achieve an ambitious target for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 at low or zero cost, the Green Party says.

The Government has rebuffed calls from the Green movement for a target of reducing emissions to 40 per cent of 1990 levels - halving current levels - as unrealistic and unaffordable.

To address the "how?", the Greens yesterday released a bottom-up analysis laying out their view of what reductions are achievable sector by sector. A target of 40 per cent would require cutting 48 million tonnes, or 56 per cent, from business-as-usual emissions by 2020.

Climate change spokeswoman Jeanette Fitzsimons said a 10th of that could be achieved in the transport sector by tougher fuel-economy standards for imported vehicles and by encouraging more use of public transport. "We use more than twice as much fuel per 100km travelled as Europeans do," she said.

Another five million tonnes could be found from the electricity sector by progressively closing down the only coal-fired plant, Huntly, and by restricting one of the gas-fired power stations to winter use only - they could be replaced by geothermal capacity and more wind farms - and by imposing minimum performance standards on electrical appliances, which would save consumers money over time.

The Greens' plan includes a relatively modest three million tonnes reduction from agriculture, about 7.5 per cent of its current emissions.

Jeanette Fitzsimons said research by AgResearch and Dairy New Zealand showed the intensive dairying model, with high stocking rates and a lot of bought-in inputs, was only profitable at a payout of more than $5.50 a kilogram of milksolids. That is higher than current and projected payouts.

More profitable would be a low intensity model, where dairy farmers more than halved the number of cows per hectare but avoided the need to buy supplementary feed like palm kernels, paid other farmers to graze their animals for part of the year and drastically reduced urea and veterinary bills.

However, Climate Change Minister Nick Smith said proposals he had seen to reduce stocking rates by a third would cost about 47,000 jobs and $6 billion a year in export earnings.

Jeanette Fitzsimons said there would be offsetting gains for the balance of payments, including a big fall in the cost of imported fuel.

"And maybe Fonterra can find other ways of adding value to milk."

The biggest savings under the Greens' plan come from forestry. An aggressive planting programme - 10,000ha next year and 30,000ha in 2011 on relatively unproductive, steep hill country - could store an additional 11 million tonnes of carbon by 2020.

Similar savings were possible from better pest control in native bush, she said, citing research by Landcare. Possums and other pests consumed millions of tonnes of carbon which could otherwise be counted to the country's credit.

By these measures - together with savings from a switch from coal to wood or gas in some industrial processes - the Greens estimate 36 million tonnes could be cut from emission levels by 2020. They say they would either pay for themselves or be competitive even at current carbon prices around $25 a tonne.

To achieve a 40 per cent reduction would require buying another 12 million tonnes of carbon credits.