The road ahead will be fraught with difficulty for Bougainville's first autonomous Government. But it can hardly be worse than the bloody and tortuous path into and out of anarchy that led to this moment. Nor should it be forgotten that this week's swearing-in ceremony was the culmination of an exceptional success story and a key point in a template that has significance for secessionist movements worldwide.
Bougainville has been an oddity since the days of German rule; it is geographically and ethnically related to the Solomon Islands but is a province of Papua New Guinea. In time, that prompted the South Pacific's most protracted crisis since World War II. The struggle for independence, between 1989 and 1998, cost about 10,000 lives on an island of 180,000 people.
It also wrecked the island's economy and infrastructure. Most significantly, operations were banned at the huge Australian-controlled Panguna copper mine, which had become a source of grievance for the rebels. Finally, with the rebels in something approaching a state of exhaustion, enterprising New Zealand diplomacy brought the warring parties to a truce.
Meetings at Burnham and Lincoln orchestrated by the then Minister of Foreign Affairs, Don McKinnon with, first, the rebels, and then also involving Papua New Guinea, delivered a commitment to a political resolution of independence issues and an end to armed conflict. A formal peace pact was finally agreed in 2001, by which time New Zealand had begun its five-year participation in an independent peace-monitoring force.
Bougainville, along with East Timor and the Solomons, was a testbed for the Government's promotion of this aspect of Defence Force operations. Again, there was success. Despite the tenseness of the ceasefire, the unarmed monitors were not involved in a single armed confrontation. Most importantly, New Zealand continued to play a key role in maintaining the momentum of the peace process.
Crucially, that is taking place in steps. The Bougainville rebels did not achieve outright independence. What they secured were wide autonomous powers and a referendum on independence from Papua New Guinea in 10 to 15 years. Most immediately, the new entity will concentrate on making this first stanza work. It is a formula that could have wide currency if applied, say, to the desire of rebels in Aceh to tear away from Indonesia or the Tamil Tigers' fight for independence from Sri Lanka.
Much of Bougainville's progress towards independence will still depend on support from Port Moresby. The signs are not particularly auspicious; Papua New Guinea has a welter of problems of its own. Encouragingly, however, it has announced a $4.8 million establishment grant.
A further vexed question is that of the Panguna copper mine. Unsurprisingly, the inauguration of the autonomous Government was accompanied by a surge in the share price of the mine operator. Lifting the ban on mining would signal Panguna's eventual reopening and a temporary quick fix for the Government. But royalties from the copper are no guarantee of long-term viability, or of good governance.
Achieving that, starting with the rebuilding of health, education and infrastructural services, will be the task of the new President, Joseph Kabui. He has reinvented himself after serving as the last premier of Bougainville under Port Moresby's rule. But, despite a decisive election victory, he has several rivals, none more potentially dangerous than secessionist leader Francis Ona, who has shunned the autonomy process.
For the moment at least, however, most of the people of Bougainville seem to have placed their faith in democracy and a steady road to independence. If that continues they, and those who brokered it, will be part of an even more outstanding success story.
<EM>Editorial:</EM> Take pride in Bougainville success story
Opinion
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