Editorial: Need to act on mood for change

Indecision prevails. The election has confirmed what opinion polls had found - the country is in two minds, torn between sticking with the known Government or going with something new. The polls found people changing their minds from day to day, producing wildly different results. That mood could have produced a decisive election verdict one way or the other, but it has not. The country has divided with almost uncanny precision. Only 1 per cent of the vote separates Labour and National and there are still about 220,000 special votes to be counted.

Indecision is explicable in the circumstances of this election. The public was presented with a choice between a Government that had presided over six good years of economic growth and an alternative that was offering the prospect of a pay-back for the good years in the shape of substantially lower taxation. For too many people, perhaps both options were equally attractive. That's a dilemma to relish, though it makes it no easier to resolve.

Now the crucial decisions have been passed to several small parties, all much reduced by the keen contest between the big two this time. Minnows New Zealand First and United Future did most to turn this election into a two-horse race by announcing they would talk first after the election to the party with the most votes. Right now that is Labour - just. But did they mean the most votes on election night, or at the final count? Both are likely to talk to Labour this week, though any agreements might be conditional on the final vote.

Their leverage is greatly increased by the Prime Minister's reluctance to deal with the new Maori Party, which collected four Maori electorates from Labour on Saturday. Helen Clark is obviously determined to show Maori that the price of forsaking Labour is a loss of any influence on her Government. She might, if she is not careful, drive the four Maori Party members into an unlikely association with National before all the post-election dealing is done.

Winston Peters, though he could not hold Tauranga this time, leads the smaller parties with seven seats. The only other party that seems capable of negotiating an agreement with either of the main parties is Peter Dunne's United Future, reduced to just three MPs now. Add the Maori Party's four votes to the mix and the possible permutations are dizzying. If the "kingmakers" decide to wait for the special votes to be counted, we might not know the next Government for another two weeks. In the meantime, though, Mr Peters and Mr Dunne have their own contest for maximum influence. Both are needed by Labour or National if neither of the potential governing parties will deal with the Maori Party.

If Labour can come to agreements this week with the Greens, NZ First and United Future it would have a majority in Parliament that is unlikely to be disturbed by the special votes. Since Mr Dunne is determined to keep the Greens out of the Cabinet, the Government would look much like the one Labour has led for the past three years. Labour has been a minority Government in its second term, drawing support as need be from its right (United Future) or its left (Greens) and from sometimes NZ First, as for its foreshore and seabed legislation. It might rely on NZ First again on issues where it parts company with the Maori Party.

But the outcome of the election cannot be entirely a continuation of the status quo. National's near-miss on election night must tell Labour that it has changes to make. The Prime Minister suggested as much in her election-night remarks. If Labour is now embarking on a third term it should first heed the clamour for across-the-board tax relief of the kind that National offered. The case for tax cuts is not mere greed on the part of "the rich", as Helen Clark is too ready to assume. There is a genuine sense among people who work hard and do well for themselves that they are always giving to this Government and getting nothing back. When Labour does open the purse it is invariably to boost benefits and income for the low-paid and large families.

The Clark Government has had a severe fright on election night. For an hour or two it looked to be going out. We may look forward to a change of style too. If the Prime Minister means what she said about healing divisions, she could begin by adopting a less snide attitude to political opponents. She has seen the National Party leader grow into his role during the campaign. Don Brash has lifted National's vote so spectacularly that he is bound to survive to fight another day. His good manners and guileless utterances generally struck a sympathetic chord with most people.

He too might review his party's performance and note that tax cuts and Maori issues did not clinch the contest after all. Their impact was surprisingly limited and helped considerably by the Government's extraordinary decision to fight the campaign on National's chosen issues. National was the topic of conversation throughout, Dr Brash was the subject of daily headlines, Labour was not attracting much interest. It made far too little of its good economic record.

If it has secured a third term, it is by the thinnest of margins. The disaffection of any one of three supporting parties could bring the Government down well before the term is out. But there is no cause to predict instability yet. No small party dares bring down a Government unless it is sure it is on popular ground.

MMP has given smaller parties an influence at times like this that is out of all proportion to their public support. NZ First (5.8 per cent of the vote) and United Future (2.7 per cent) stand to decide the next government. They ought to put aside their own strategic political interests and concentrate on the will of the electorate as expressed on Saturday. They may interpret the close result as a wish for the best offering of both big parties: continuing Labour's economic management and social harmony with National's tax relief and review of some racial excesses. Labour may have won on the night but there is strangely little excitement about it. There was instead a mood for change. It may be up to Labour to see that we get it.