Editorial: National under full sail

In politics, as in all walks of life, momentum is a powerful asset. Those on a roll are remarkably difficult to stop. They exhibit a new-found confidence and capability, and acquire the aura of a winner. Right now, the National Party is on just such a roll. And, as the latest Herald-Digipoll survey confirmed, the Labour Party will have to reverse a significant tidal flow if it is to secure a third term in office.

The poll showed National up four points to 40.1 per cent, with Labour down seven points to 36.2 per cent. It represented a reversal of the position a month ago, and followed the trend of declining support for the Government and a steady improvement by National. As recently as April, Labour had attracted 47.7 per cent support, and enjoyed a 13-point advantage. Significantly, the other big improver in the latest poll was New Zealand First, a probable National coalition partner, which climbed 3.6 points to 11.8 per cent.

It is now inevitable that the general election will be held at the latest-possible date. The Government needs every one of the 13 available weeks to fathom a way out of its malaise. It will doubtless reflect that it was in almost exactly this position early last year after National leader Don Brash's Orewa speech on race relations. Then, it took five months to reverse the tide. Obviously, it does not now possess that time.

The circumstances also differ. National's post-Orewa boost was spurred by a policy statement that found widespread resonance. This poll shaped more as a verdict on the Government: disappointment at the failure to deliver immediate tax cuts in last month's Budget; discontent with the perceived politically correct indulgence of minority groups; and disillusionment with the all-round arrogance of a second-term government.

To avoid succumbing to these sentiments, Labour will emphasise Prime Minister Helen Clark's standing, and embark on a more robust fightback. Its response so far has been ineffectual. In particular, Finance Minister Michael Cullen's defence of the Budget has failed to convince. According to the Herald-Digipoll survey, 61.2 per cent of respondents did not believe the country could not afford tax cuts. A further problem for Labour is that Dr Brash's resolute stewardship of the Reserve Bank makes such people confident National's yet-to-be-announced tax cuts will not trigger higher interest rates.

Labour must also counter National's self-proclaimed "sensible, mainstream policies". These initiatives - the likes of tax cuts and ending the Treaty of Waitangi "gravy train" - are a response to the thrust and tenor of the Government's social legislation, and a plug for the central ground. That is territory the Prime Minister believed she had staked out. The task of reclaiming it will fall, in large part, to her.

The Herald-Digipoll survey found her personal support was also waning, although, at 48.8 per cent, it is still almost double that of Dr Brash. Probably not too much should be read into his polling, however. Opposition leaders traditionally have a tough task achieving high levels of popularity. Nonetheless, Labour will cultivate a presidential-style election campaign, one in which the Prime Minister's nous and knowledge will be pitted against a man who remains essentially a political novice.

Political wisdom has it that elections are lost by governments, rather than being won by their opponents. This election is shaping as no exception. Labour is bleeding votes, rather than opposition parties making dramatic gains. The upshot, however, is a National Party under full sail.