Editorial: Fear factor lobbed into election race

What a difference a poll makes. Especially one that shows the frontrunner in an election year has suddenly slipped into second place and suggests other seismic shifts in the political landscape.

The NBR-Phillips Fox poll published last Friday was just such a poll. Not only did it show National edging out Labour for the number one spot - albeit by a slender margin - but the only other parties above the 5 per cent threshold, which guarantees a proportion of seats in Parliament, were New Zealand First and the Greens - the Greens teetering perilously close to the brink.

When the race is so close the margin of error can, of course, make a big difference and there is always the possibility of a "rogue" poll. But it is significant that most people in politics seem to have accepted this one as a relatively accurate fix on the sentiment of the electorate.

Certainly it seems to have injected a new and shrill tone into the pre-campaign skirmishes. Greens co-leader Rod Donald set the standard in his speech to the party's annual conference in Christchurch on Saturday when he introduced the fear factor. The choice, he said, was "between a Labour-Green Government, which believes in compassion, diversity and tolerance and has a strong social and environmental conscience and a National-NZ First Government which stands for divisiveness, intolerance, bigotry and ignoring the poor to give tax cuts to the rich". And to emphasise the point he invoked the ghosts of history - Muldoon, Douglas and, most outlandishly, Hitler.

Few people will be impressed by such tired political cliches but this is not to say that the Greens' rhetoric is without significance. Such extravagant language suggests that fear is, indeed, a part of the campaign. But it is a fear induced by polls that suggest minor parties with no electorate seat, such as the Greens, could so easily be wiped out at the election by the slightest shift in the winds of public opinion.

The contrast between the rhetoric of a party fighting to maintain a toehold in Parliament and the party at the top of the poll could not be greater. Where the Greens are shrill, National is projecting an air of confidence and defining this campaign as a two-horse race even before it has begun. The only sure way to force a change of Government, argues the leader, Don Brash, is to vote for National. The point is underscored by the party's highly effective billboards sprouting across the country which picture a choice between two options: Labour personified by an unsmiling Helen Clark or National characterised by a happy Don Brash.

It is a tactic which aims to confine the minor parties to a position of irrelevance and, in its own way, is as ill-advised as the Greens' colourful language. Under MMP, there is no such thing as a two-horse race. Indeed, NZ First leader Winston Peters was quick to claim it was a three-horse race.

But even he is underestimating the position. Any party that stands is in the race and with the eight parties from the existing Parliament to choose from, plus a few more, voters have a vast array of options when they decide how to deliver their political messages.

One possibility may well be, as Dr Brash hopes, that they will polarise around the two major parties to get a decisive result on election night. But the logic and brief history of MMP suggest this will turn out to be a pipedream. Voters have a sophisticated understanding of vote-splitting and when the moment of truth comes in the polling booth, they are highly unlikely to give a clear-cut mandate to a single party.

If this is a sobering point for the confident Nationals, it is also a signal of hope for the nervous Greens.