Editorial: Clark faces tantalising decisions

Opinion

Finally, an election result. The count of more than 200,000 special votes has done little more than confirm the outcome of election night - Labour is almost certain to be able to form a third-term Government. The only remaining question is, with whom? And the answer to that question very much depends upon what sort of Government it wants to be. The voters have provided it with a tantalising selection of conceivable supporters.

By reducing National's share of the party vote and lifting the Maori Party's, the special votes have reduced the overhang of Maori electorate seats by one and given us a Parliament of 121 seats this time. If Winston Peters keeps to his intention to abstain on questions of confidence and supply a Government will need to be able to rely on 58 votes for survival. Labour, Jim Anderton and the Greens together have 57 seats. Helen Clark needs one more small party on side, and she is probably happy that she does. A coalition with the Greens alone would be unlikely to appeal across the national divide the election has exposed.

Labour's options for a second partner (or third if you count Mr Anderton) become United Future or the Maori Party. Having campaigned as an alternative to Maori representation within the Labour Party the Maori Party must be counted unlikely to compromise its independence so soon. But it might commit its votes to Labour on vital divisions if, with Labour and the Greens, it was able to pass legislation putting the survival of Maori electorates beyond reach of a bare majority in Parliament. Helen Clark, however, gives every sign she would prefer to work with a parliamentary veteran, Peter Dunne, and count on the three United Future votes when she needs them.

The election result is a particular triumph for Helen Clark. The final count has lifted her winning margin over National to 2 per cent of the vote, or two seats in the House. It confirms her as the first leader of the Labour Party to lead it to three election victories. Considering the party has been in existence for nearly 90 years and had only once previously governed beyond two terms, Helen Clark is now assured of a high place in its pantheon.

She came to power with her cap set firmly against further radical change and has spent two terms governing cautiously. Her party has seldom ranged outside a public consensus. Where it has dared to lead public opinion, on prostitution law reform and civil unions for example, it has left the decision to MPs' free votes. The question now is, will Helen Clark or her party continue in cautious mode? Or will the pressure be to do something more daring, on the assumption this term is likely to be its last?

While the election was a triumph for the Prime Minister, it was far from a disaster for her rival. Don Brash has taken National out of the doldrums of the previous election and brought it within 2 percentage points of victory. It can look forward to the next election with confidence and in the meantime it has every reason to keep itself prepared for the possible fall of the multi-party arrangement Labour will need to negotiate.

The Greens are plainly anxious to have a role in a Cabinet while they have the chance, though Peter Dunne is determined to see them kept at arm's length and the Prime Minister is adamant they will not be given portfolios such as energy and transport. All might find themselves waiting for the Maori Party to finish consulting their people on any role that party might expect.

Government-forming has become a laborious business but the verdict is in at last. The Prime Minister will probably try to deal with every party interested in talking to her. The more she has onside, the easier it may be to continue as a minority Government of Labour alone.