In a transcript seen by the NZ Herald before it was released, Luxon says his “strong preference” is a National-Act coalition government.
“I believe that government would be in the best interests of New Zealanders at this very uncertain time.
“However, if New Zealand First is returned to Parliament, and I need to pick up the phone to Mr Peters to keep Labour and the coalition of chaos out, I will make that call.
“Frankly, I think Chris Hipkins will ultimately do exactly the same thing.”
Labour’s leader Chris Hipkins and NZ First leader Winston Peters have previously ruled out any governing arrangement with each other, and Hipkins is now trying to pitch a potential National-Act-NZ First government as chaotic.
However, Luxon is clearly worried some supporters might take his message as a nod to vote strategically, rather than for National, and further boost NZ First’s vote.
He makes it clear NZ First is a last resort and reminds voters it had sided with Labour in the past, suggesting it could happen again. “We all remember 2017. New Zealand First hasn’t gone with National in 27 years - and could choose Labour again.”
“But that decision is ultimately up to you.”
For months, Luxon has dismissed questions about NZ First as hypothetical, saying they were not in Parliament or polling about 5 per cent.
However, it has now polled at or near that 5 per cent threshold in a succession of polls. The latest 1News Verian poll gave National and Act a slim one-seat majority. A small shift of that vote would see NZ First come into play.
Last week, Peters called on National to be clearer about working with NZ First, saying he could not comment on the matter until they did. He has consistently said it is up to the voters to decide whether the parties should work together.
Act leader David Seymour has said he would not sit around a Cabinet table with NZ First, but has not ruled out including NZ First outside a formal coalition arrangement. In last week’s Newshub Powerbrokers debate, both said they would find a way to co-operate if they had to, but Seymour in particular made it clear he would not enjoy it.
In the video, Luxon will also urge voters not to assume National will win: a sign National is nervous soft voters will either not bother to vote or will try to vote strategically, thinking they will be helping National.
“There’s a bit of commentary out there that this election is a foregone conclusion. I can assure you, it definitely isn’t, and that’s because every single MMP election is tight, and I expect the results to be extremely close this time too.”
It also includes a specific pitch to disillusioned Labour voters who might be uncomfortable about voting for National.
“Some of you may still be undecided and some of you may have never voted for National before, but respectfully, the last thing New Zealand needs is a coalition of chaos that will be worse than the last six years and take a wrecking ball to our economy.
“If you don’t want that either, then don’t leave it to chance. Vote for change.”
It comes as Luxon moves to address unresolved issues in his campaign and give voters clarity on his positions the week before advance voting begins.
Luxon and his finance spokesperson Nicola Willis will also release National’s full fiscal plan this week.
Overseas voting starts this Wednesday and advance voting in New Zealand starts next Monday.
The election date is October 14.
Claire Trevett is the NZ Herald’s political editor, based at Parliament in Wellington. She started at the NZ Herald in 2003 and joined the press gallery team in 2007. She is a life member of the Parliamentary press gallery.
