In the final weeks of the campaign, National leader Christopher Luxon has told anyone who will listen that this election will be close.
But three days aboard National’s campaign bus travelling the length of the North Island shows that the message of caution is slowly turning into one of confidence as the hours tick down towards an election result.
Beginning in Wellington on Wednesday, National’s Back on Track Express stopped in Upper Hutt, Masterton, Dannevirke, Hastings, Napier, Taupō, Putāruru, Rotorua, Matamata, Morrinsville and Hampton Downs on its way to Luxon’s final campaign rally in his home electorate of Botany this evening.
Depsite the logistical challenges posed by a trip spanning more than 800km, the itinerary has survived largely intact - an impressive feat given the National leader’s tendency to stop and chat.
The bus is filled with about two dozen enthusiastic members of the party’s young wing.
One has a large speaker. National’s campaign song Day is Gonna Come by Royal Deluxe - one of Luxon’s old running tunes - is played more than 40 times over the three days, often featuring when the party leader exits the bus and during his rallies. The latest Taylor Swift hits are crowd favourites also.
Deputy leader Nicola Willis, who travelled on the bus yesterday in Luxon’s place while he prepared for last night’s debate, appeared to be building expectations among the eager Young Nats.
“You’re part of something special,” she tells them.
“It’s going to be a great memory in the memory bank.”
Luxon’s public engagements have a consistent theme. He’s greeted by thrilled local party members who are armed with National signs. They get a handshake and a quick chat before Luxon is whisked away to a cafe or bakery where he continues perfecting his barista skills by making his preferred option of a trim milk hot chocolate.
His brief visits come with plenty of fanfare. The Young Nats squad ensure there is plenty of noise as Luxon disembarks to a celebrity’s welcome.
Not all have appreciated the tour. Three young boys stood staunchly outside McDonald’s in Rotorua, raising their middle fingers to Luxon’s grinning face plastered on the side of the bus as it passed.
But many are quick to crown him the next Prime Minister and it seems Luxon is getting familiar with the title.
“[That] was a ‘you’re going to become Prime Minister’ smile,” one woman says of her friend as she takes his photo with Luxon.
“I’ve seen that smile a few times,” Luxon says.
In Rotorua, he talks briefly with 43-year-old Erika Jack. She wants her 6-year-old, Wiremu, to meet Luxon.
She’s a traditional Labour supporter, voting in line with her family. But she’s turning blue this time and thinks more Māori should.
“I think [Labour is] full of s*** and it’s nice to see something new and I think [Luxon] means it,” she says.
“I think a lot more Māori should vote for [National] because the old is not doing anything for us.
“If it doesn’t work out we’ve got another election in the future.”
In Napier on Thursday, Luxon and his two local candidates, Catherine Wedd and Katie Nimon, hold a rally at the Hawke’s Bay Club - an interesting venue choice for two female candidates given the club only opened its doors to women in 2021.
During his speech, Luxon hammered home the message that the election result was far from decided, even joking that supporters should be pulling strangers off the streets and into a voting booth.
By the time he’s reached Morrinsville earlier today, Luxon doesn’t temper the enthusiasm of his supporters with talk of a tight election, instead urging those who haven’t yet had their say to do so.
“Let’s get this job done, let’s get this country sorted, let’s get it turned around and moving in the right direction again.”
Despite getting only four hours of sleep most nights, Luxon has appeared energetic right to the end - even taking the time to don an apron and hand out lollies and chocolates as the bus hurtles towards Auckland.
“We are powered by sugar on this campaign,” he says.
Adam Pearse is a political reporter in the NZ Herald Press Gallery team, based at Parliament. He has worked for NZME since 2018, covering sport and health for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei before moving to the NZ Herald in Auckland, covering Covid-19 and crime.