The Newshub-Reid Research poll showed National on 34.5 per cent, having plunged 4.6 points, and Act on 8.8 per cent, giving those two parties 54 seats and needing NZ First’s 6.8 per cent and nine seats to govern.
It also had Labour on 27.5 per cent, the Greens on 14.9 per cent, and Te Pāti Māori on 2.7 per cent, giving the left bloc 57 seats.
Meanwhile, a 1News Verian poll showed Labour up two points to 28 per cent, and National up one point to 37 per cent.
The Greens were also up one to 14 per cent, while Act was down one point to 9 per cent - the lowest result in that poll for a year. NZ First was on 6 per cent and Te Pāti Māori was steady on 2 per cent.
Those numbers gave the right bloc 58 seats and the left bloc 54 seats, with NZ First’s eight seats needed for either side to form a government. Peters has been clear he would not go with Labour, leaving National the only option.
This is complicated by the fact National and Act are deeply uncomfortable with the prospect of going into government with NZ First to the point where National has floated that a second election might be required if a deal could not be struck.
If the polls are correct, the Greens would be one of the unexpected winners of the election. Though not in government, they would bring in their largest caucus of 17 or 19 MPs.
Campaigning in Dannevirke, National leader Christopher Luxon said he did not think his party had peaked early and claimed he had “great momentum”.
However, given the uncertainty, Luxon has been unable to say when he would like to be able to form a government after the election as this could depend on special votes which are not released until the final count is published on November 3.
“Before the election, the result is in the hands of the New Zealand people. That’s why I keep saying if they want change they have to step up to the plate and party vote National to make that happen,” Luxon said.
Labour Party leader Chris Hipkins at EV City in Christchurch with the first ever electric vehicle built in 1903. Photo / George Heard
He said he would work with what voters gave him on election night.
Peters has a habit of refusing to begin coalition talks before special votes are counted. However, speaking to the Herald he said that might not be necessary this election, allowing talks on the right to begin soon after the election.
“That depends on what we see on election night,” Peters said.
Asked whether this meant negotiations would start earlier, Peters said: “No, I’m not saying anything at all. You’ll just have to wait for voters who are the masters of it all.”
Labour leader Chris Hipkins spent yesterday campaigning in Christchurch with a strategy highlighting how much his party thinks voters stand to lose under National and Act.
Labour has floated a new campaign slogan. “If National wins, you lose”, and yesterday morning put out two releases on the topic, one focused on poverty, the other focused on climate.
Though no poll shows a path to power for Labour and the left - having ruled out working with NZ First - Hipkins was optimistic.
“I think we’ve got huge momentum behind Labour as we get into the final days,” he said.
“The majority of New Zealanders haven’t voted yet, many of them are still making up their minds how to vote.”
The next three days before polling day would be critical.
National leader Christopher Luxon and deputy Nicola Willis campaigning on the National bus in Upper Hutt. Photo / Mark Mitchell
But the war in Israel has cast a cloud over the political left, with Hipkins being forced to “pause” a promise to invite a Palestinian official to present credentials in Wellington days after Labour first made the promise, and division between Labour and the Greens over the classification of Hamas as a terrorist organisation.
New Zealand currently recognises the military wing of Hamas as a terrorist group, a decision made by the Sir John Key government. The rest of Hamas, which governs the Gaza Strip, does not currently have the same designation by New Zealand despite other countries, including our Five Eyes partners, recognising its political wing as a terrorist organisation.
Hipkins revealed that in the past three days he had sought advice on whether to extend the terrorist organisation designation to the whole group.
“I’ve asked for advice which will go to the next government after the election, whether it’s us or the other side, they will get a terrorist assessment on whether that designation should be extended to the political wing,” Hipkins said.
Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson, who was arrested and held by Israeli authorities after trying to breach Israel’s blockade of Gaza on a protest ship in 2016, said she wanted to have this test applied to other organisations in the conflict, namely the Israeli Defence Force or IDF.
In The Press Leaders’ Debate, Davidson said “violence against civilians, whether that is committed by Hamas, or the Israeli Defence Force, is absolutely unacceptable”.
She said the terrorist designation should be applied “equally to all terrorist acts”.
“The Israeli Defence Force has caused decades of violence. Right now ... there are a million children in Gaza whose city is being flattened,” she said.
Hipkins said he “totally disagree[d]” with designating the IDF a terrorist organisation.
“There is no question - we’ve not asked for that assessment to be done on the Israeli military.”
Luxon said if National won the election, he would await the advice commissioned by Hipkins before deciding whether to extend the terrorist designation to all of Hamas.
Thomas Coughlan is deputy political editor and covers politics from Parliament. He has worked for the Herald since 2021 and has worked in the press gallery since 2018.
