Election 2023: Labour lays down Budget challenge to National

National's finance spokeswoman NIcola Willis (left) and Labour's finance spokesman Grant Robertson at the Mood of the Boardroom event at the Cordis Hotel. Photo / Michael Craig

Labour is going on the offensive in the final days of the election, this morning releasing its own version of National’s campaign fiscal plan, which finance spokesman Grant Robertson says would require “more than $3 billion in cuts every year”.

Labour has put together its own seven-page document, formatted in the exact style of National’s own fiscal plan, which argues that deep cuts would be required to make National’s pledges add up.

National’s finance spokeswoman Nicola Willis said the allegations were “more desperation from a Labour Party that has never kept to a single spending promise it has set in a fiscal plan”.

“National’s tax policy and fiscal plans have been independently checked by external experts and found to be consistent and credible,” she said.

“Labour’s addiction to spending has poured fuel on the inflation fire, blown New Zealand’s debt from $5b in 2019 to $100b and delayed the return to surplus three times. They are in simply no position to lecture anyone on fiscal rectitude,” she said.

Some of the allegations rest on claims National disputes, like the well-litigated issues around its foreign buyers’ tax. National wants to earn about $2.9b from the tax over the four-year forecast period, but Labour has followed the figures calculated by Nick Goodall, Michael Reddell, and Sam Warburton and booked just $848 million in revenue from the tax.

Labour has also adopted a different figure for National’s gambling tax, which it labelled a “worthless gimmick”. Labour claims that tax will bring in $132m less a year.

Other allegations in the Budget analysis add detail to things National has left vague.

The party’s tax plan rests on being able to cut public sector back-office expenditure by an average of 6.5 per cent across a number of key government agencies, saving $2.4b over four years. Agencies identified for savings include the Crown Law Office, which has seen spending grow by 93 per cent since Labour took office, and the Department of Conservation, which has increased its spending 85 per cent since Labour took office.

But Labour said these cuts would not be “back room”, but would hit frontline services.

The plan said that even if a National Government axed the Ministry of Justice’s entire policy function, all communications staff, and stopped all advertising and public communications, it would still be $55m short of National’s 6.5 per cent target.

The document warned that gap would have to be plugged by cutting somewhere else.

National's Nicola Willis and leader Christopher Luxon. Photo / Jason Oxenham

“This true picture of costings will require cuts to public services of up to $3.1 billion a year. That’s nearly a third more than the $2.3 billion in cuts National initially claimed, with additional cuts of $716 million in 2024/5, then $743 million, $780 million, and $798 million in subsequent years,” Robertson said.

“Make no mistake, cuts of this scale go down to the bone. They will have a massive impact on frontline services, which would be devastating for hundreds of thousands of families and businesses up and down New Zealand, leaving them worse [off],” he said.

“Court staff, victim support, legal aid, the public defence service, and community law centres are all at risk.”

Labour also raised an eyebrow at National’s Department of Conservation (DoC) cuts. Cutting DoC’s entire policy function, all communications staff, and stopping all advertising and public communications would still leave it $40m short, which Labour said could be plugged by axing rangers and predator control.

It repeated the exercise at Customs, arguing cuts of 34 per cent would be needed because Customs is not entirely Government-funded.

It also warned National would need to “cut IRD’s policy advice four times over” to reach their target.

“Not only will National give billions in tax cuts to property speculators, but it seems they would cut back on investigations, audit, and litigation activities,” the Labour document warned.

By reducing the revenue National would get from the foreign buyers’ tax, gambling tax, and using more up-to-date figures for the party’s promise to restore the ability of landlords to deduct interest costs from their mortgages, Labour argues National’s plan is more expensive than originally claimed.

The plan argues that these would require $3b of additional cuts over the four-year forecast period for National’s plans to stack up.

Robertson challenged National to come up with more detailed figures.

“At any point over the last 40 days, National could have explained how their plan stacks up as economists and commentators have highlighted huge gaps in it. There’s only one explanation why they’ve chosen not to do so: it simply does not add up,” Robertson said.

Thomas Coughlan is Deputy Political Editor and covers politics from Parliament. He has worked for the Herald since 2021 and has worked in the press gallery since 2018.