National thought it would have a cracking start to the Parliamentary sitting block.
Question Time on Tuesday was sandwiched between one MP (ex-minister Michael Wood) being referred to the Privileges Committee for an inquiry shortly after 2pm, and a debate on the just-concluded Privileges Committee Report into Jan Tinetti,shortly after Question Time wrapped up an hour later.
You might add to that Finance spokeswoman Nicola Willis’ excoriating primary question into Grant Robertson’s wealth tax plans, which cocked a doubtful eyebrow in the direction of Robertson’s ropey claim that “the extent of the Government’s work on tax was outlined after the 2020 election”.
And you might add to that the awkwardness of Wood returning to work, shunted to the nosebleed seats at the back of the chamber, and Kiri Allan also returning to Caucus, but shadowed by colleague Willie Jackson when wandering in any part of Parliament media might lurk.
Throw in a slight poll lead in last night’s 1News-Verian poll and you have all the ingredients for a pretty good hour in the life of National leader/perhaps prime minister-to-be Christopher Luxon.
But that was not to be.
Luxon, before the end of question three, managed to embed his foot so firmly in his mouth that all the free prescriptions in the world would not have disgorged it.
The flub came as Grant Robertson interjected on Luxon’s questions, trying to break his focus as he pressed them about Hipkins’ disagreement with Robertson and David Parker over the wealth tax.
Luxon paused, Robertson said, “no, no, carry on”.
To which Luxon replied that he would.
Then, perhaps wanting to show his unflappability, Luxon grinned, and added one of the worst possible combinations of words: “Don’t worry, we’ve got years of this...”
A brief second followed, in which the House couldn’t quite believe its collective ears. Then, like water breaching a dam, the Labour benches erupted in peals of laughter at Luxon, inadvertently conceding he and National would be in opposition for “years”.
To the outside, it looked like a minor flub, but in Question Time, the Government will often try to trap the Opposition into inadvertently implying ministers will still be in government after an election.
Questions that assume a minister or ministers will be in charge after an election often elicit a pithy response from the Government that it is kind of the Opposition to assume they’ll still be in government.
The National benches were deathly silent, a thicket of 34 poker-faced death masks, desperate to not add to Labour’s joy by conceding it really was quite funny - or worse still, by letting on that they thought they themselves would never make such an obvious gaffe.
Barbara Kuriger, just visible on Parliamentary TV, suppressed a laugh, tightly pursing her lips as though wrapped around a wedge of sour lemon. Nicola Willis frowned, shook her head, and smiled. Heavens knows what she was thinking.
It was 10 excruciating seconds before Luxon resumed his question. Even then, the House had to be called to order by the Speaker so people could actually hear it.
National’s woes didn’t end there.
Willis, usually one of the House’s better performers, tried to stem the tide.
Robertson appeared to get under Willis’s skin (a reversal of recent Question Times, when it has been Willis who got under Robertson’s skin more).
“In the words of that member’s leader, ‘we’ve got years of this’,” Robertson said to Willis.
Willis quickly retorted: “Is that a bid for the Labour Party leadership?”
“No, but it is for you!” Robertson laughed back.
The joke doesn’t quite work. Written in print, it doesn’t make sense. Is Willis bidding for the Labour leadership? No.
The implication is obviously that Willis wants to be National leader and she may have to wait a long, long time.
Again, the House erupted in laughter. Robertson writhed in his chair, laughing.
Megan Woods could be heard over his microphone saying: “Oh my God, it’s an own goal”.
Willis looked like she’d had the air knocked out of her. Luxon, unhelpfully (forgetting too, that he is always on camera in the House) was smiling, and laughed - not at Robertson’s gag, but that doesn’t matter.
National snatched defeat from the jaws of victory on Tuesday. All the polling indicators, right track/wrong track, economic sentiment, and, crucially, the party vote poll, point towards a change of government this election.
But Tuesday is a frightening reminder to National that Luxon is fresh and untested, and four leaders’ debates away from the Beehive.
Hipkins is battle-hardened and - though he has a suite of embarrassing Parliamentary corrections to his name - doesn’t fluster as easily as Luxon. A few embarrassing flubs, a “show me the money” moment, could be all it needs to shift this incredibly close election in Labour’s favour.
Rubbing it in, Hipkins rested in his seat after Luxon opted against further supplementary questions and howled across the chamber: “Really? I spent half an hour preparing for that!”
Thomas Coughlan is Deputy Political Editor and covers politics from Parliament. He has worked for the Herald since 2021 and has worked in the press gallery since 2018.