Election 2023: Poll of polls - Labour has 0.1% chance of being in government, worst result for main governing party since Great Depression

National leader Christopher Luxon looks set to become New Zealand’s next prime minister, according to the Herald’s poll of polls.

It would be the first time New Zealand has had three prime ministers in a year since 1990, and Labour looks set to record the worst result for one of the major parties after a stint in government in the MMP era. It would be the worst result for a major party after a stint in government since the Great Depression, nearly a century ago.

The poll of polls simulates election outcomes based on results from other polls. It then reports these as probable outcomes for the election, both if it were held this weekend and if it occurred on October 14, polling day.

If the election were held this weekend, National, Act, and NZ First would have a 99.4 per cent chance of being able to form a government, this falls slightly to 98 per cent if the election were held on polling day.

National and Act have a 51.5 per cent chance of being able to form a government if the election were held this weekend, rising to 56.5 per cent for the actual polling day.

Labour’s odds continue to narrow. A Labour-Green-Te Pāti Māori formation has a 0.1 per cent likelihood of being able to form a government if the election were held this weekend. Those odds increase to 0.4 per cent if the election were held on polling day.

Labour and the Greens have 0 per cent chance of getting over the line without Te Pāti Māori if the election were held this weekend, or on another date. Their only chance is for Winston Peters and Chris Hipkins to reverse their respective ruling out of one another. Labour-Green-Te Pāti Māori-NZ First coalition have a 26.8 per cent chance of being able to get over the line on election day.

The Poll of Polls puts Labour on 27.5 per cent. National is nearly 10 points ahead on 36.5 per cent. The Greens are on 12 per cent, Act is 10.7 per cent. NZ First is on exactly 5 per cent, Te Pāti Māori is on 2.9, and the TOP is on 2.2 per cent,

Labour looks set to crash out of Government being the least popular major party after a stint in Government since the Great Depression.

In 1931, Gordon Coates’ Reform Party won just 26.6 per cent of the vote.

It was in a months-old alliance with the United Party after one of the most chaotic parliamentary terms in New Zealand’s history. The collapse of both in the wake of the Great Depression and the rise of Labour saw the parties eventually merge to become the modern National Party.

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this article was based on a version of the model that incorrectly handled New Zealand First crossing the 5% threshold. Some of the reported probabilities of different coalition groupings being able to form a government were incorrect. Most significantly, earlier versions of this article overestimated the probability that National and ACT could govern alone. The corrected model predicts a 51.5% chance of National and ACT governing alone in an election held this weekend.