Election 2023: Herald’s poll of polls shows growing possibility of hung Parliament after National rules out Māori Party

The possibility of a hung Parliament, which could in theory force another election, is now a higher chance than National and Act being able to govern alone, based on the Herald’s poll of polls.

Using data from different pollsters and running multiple election simulations, including from last night’s target="_blank">1News Kantar Public poll, the prospect of the left and right blocs finishing equal would be 27.5 per cent, if an election were held this weekend.

That is up from just over 25 per cent two weeks ago. That percentage drops to 11.8 per cent looking ahead to election night on October 14.

A National/Act government based on current polling has a 23.4 per cent possibility, though this increases to 39.6 per cent on election night.

The most likely post-election government formation remains the one that was taken off the table by National leader Christopher Luxon – one involving National, Act and Te Pāti Māori, which is now up to 99.4 per cent (dropping to 83.4 per cent on election night).

A Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori coalition has a 49.1 per cent probability currently, dropping to 48.1 per cent on polling day.

The odds of a Labour-Green government are slim, at just a 0.1 per cent probability if the election were held this weekend, rising to 10.6 per cent if the simulation is extended to polling day.

A hung Parliament occurs when neither major party, even working with its traditional partners, can form a government or get the 61 out of 120 seats to form a majority.

The last time it occurred was in 2017, when NZ First became kingmaker, making it leader Winston Peters’ third time in that position. Peters then picked Labour, something he has ruled out doing again if given the opportunity.

According to the poll of polls, NZ First is unlikely to be in the kingmaker position again, with its average party vote at only 3 per cent, well below the 5 per cent needed to get into Parliament without winning an electorate seat.

The poll of polls runs using most political polls published in New Zealand and was updated today to include the latest 1News Kantar Public poll.

That poll had National and Act being able to govern alone. National was on 37 per cent, up three points on its last poll two months ago. Labour was on 35 per cent, down one point. Act remained on 11 per cent.

A complication with the polling numbers is the number of electorate seats Te Pāti Māori might win. While the party has a very low chance of reaching the 5 per cent threshold, it typically runs strong strong electorate campaigns in the Māori seats.

It is currently favoured to retain Waiariki, with Debbie Ngarewa-Packer having a good chance in Te Tai Hauāuru. Former Labour MP Meka Whaitiri also has a strong chance of winning Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, this time for Te Pāti Māori.

Historically, the party has caused Parliament to have an additional or “overhang” seat because the number of seats it wins from its electorate races is greater than the number won through its party vote performance. This overhang gives an advantage to whichever bloc Te Pāti Māori decides to back.

Luxon recently ruled out any possibility of National forming a government with Te Pāti Māori, saying it was a different party to the one former National leaders John Key and Bill English had worked with from 2008 until 2017.

Te Pāti Māori co-leaders Ngarewa-Packer and Rawiri Waititi have both previously all but ruled out being part of a National government, saying they could not work with parties that did not take a Treaty-centric view – and taking aim at National’s likely governing partner Act in particular.

Te Pāti Māori president John Tamihere said he thought Luxon was only trying to scare people. He believed Luxon would want to negotiate if Te Pāti Māori held the balance of power.

Currently, the poll of polls reckons Te Pāti Māori will win four seats thanks to its party vote, meaning an overhang would occur only if it won more than four electorates, something it has done only once.

For each electorate seat Te Pāti Māori wins above four, the chance of a National-Act Government reduces.

If Te Pāti Māori wins five electorates, the odds of National and Act governing alone drops to 22.9 per cent; if it wins six electorates, those odds drop to 11.7 per cent.

If the party wins all seven Māori electorates, the likelihood of National and Act forming a government drops to just 7.1 per cent.

Labour’s Willie Jackson, who heads his party’s Māori seats campaign, rejected the idea of promoting tactical voting in those seats to boost the left bloc’s chances when asked about it by Jack Tame on TVNZ’s Q+A this month.

Jackson said that, despite the potential benefits for the left of tactical voting in the Māori seats, he would still be campaigning in those seats.

“My job is to win the seven Māori seats,” he said.

“People sweat blood and tears for Labour ... we can’t just pass over the seats for the Māori Party, it doesn’t work like that.”