Neither could govern alone on those numbers and with 3.4 per cent of the vote, Te Pāti Māori again finds itself in a kingmaker position. But with National Party leader Christopher Luxon having ruled out working with them in any scenario, the most likely governing coalition would be Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori.
That coalition has a 51.1 per cent likelihood of occurring if an election were to be held this weekend, dropping to 50.1 per cent on polling day (October 14).
The most likely post-election government formation remains the one that was taken off the table by Luxon – one involving National, Act and Te Pāti Māori, which is now up to 99.7 per cent (dropping to 86 per cent on election night).
The odds of a solely Labour-Green Government would be non-existent if the election was this weekend, but rise to 8.3 per cent if the simulation is extended to polling day.
National and Act being able to govern alone as of this weekend have a 20.7 per cent chance, while on polling day that rises to 37.1 per cent.
A possibility of a hung Parliament is also edging up, at 28.1 per cent if the election were to be held this weekend - up from 25 per cent six weeks ago.
A hung Parliament occurs when neither major party, even working with its traditional partners, can form a government or get 61 out of 120 seats to form a majority.
The last time it occurred was in 2017, when NZ First became kingmaker, making it leader Winston Peters’ third time in that position. Peters then picked Labour, something he has ruled out doing again if given the opportunity.
According to the poll of polls, NZ First is unlikely to be in the kingmaker position again, with its average party vote at only 2.5 per cent, well below the 5 per cent needed to get into Parliament without winning an electorate seat.
Te Pāti Māori would likely enter Parliament at this stage through Rawiri Waititi reclaiming the Māori electorate seat of Waiariki, and the party vote share adding another three seats through the coattail rule.
The poll of polls runs using most political polls published in New Zealand and was updated this week to include this month’s Taxpayer Union Curia and Talbot Mills polls.
A complication with the polling numbers is the number of electorate seats Te Pāti Māori might win. While the party has a very low chance of reaching the 5 per cent threshold, it typically runs strong electorate campaigns in the Māori seats.
It is currently favoured to retain Waiariki, with Debbie Ngarewa-Packer having a good chance in Te Tai Hauāuru. Former Labour MP Meka Whaitiri also has a strong chance of winning Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, this time for Te Pāti Māori.
Historically, the party has caused Parliament to have an additional or “overhang” seat because the number of seats it wins from its electorate races is greater than the number won through its party vote performance. This overhang gives an advantage to whichever bloc Te Pāti Māori decides to back.
Labour campaign chairwoman Megan Woods said the election was shaping up to be “very close” but she was pleased to see Labour in front at this stage.
“It shows Labour has the best chance to lead the next Government, but we’re taking nothing for granted and we’ll be working very hard over the coming months to earn that privilege.
“In just six months Chris Hipkins has refocused the Government onto the bread and butter issues that are most important to New Zealanders, and we’ll be asking Kiwis to give him a clear shot at the job next term.”
National’s campaign chairman Chris Bishop did not respond to a request for comment by the deadline.
Michael Neilson covers politics for the NZ Herald, based at Parliament in Wellington. He started at the NZ Herald in 2018 – covering social issues, the environment and Māori affairs – before joining the press gallery team in 2021.
