Green Party co-leader James Shaw says its historically high polling is down to offering “hope” in a bleak campaign from the other parties alongside record levels of people power.
At 14.9 per cent in the Newshub-Reid Research poll and 14 per cent in the 1NewsVerian figures on Wednesday, the party is almost at its highest level of 15 per cent, which it reached in a 2017 TVNZ poll.
That came after then co-leader Metiria Turei’s revelations of misleading Winz as a solo parent, though, as that saga progressed and Turei resigned the party only achieved 6.3 per cent in that year’s election.
With two days until the election it looks like little will dent the Green Party’s historic rise this time. Those polls would give the party a record 17-19 MPs, up from its current 10.
It would see several new faces in Parliament including ecologist Lan Pham, environmental activist and musician Steve Abel, Ngātiwai Trust Board chief executive Hūhana Lyndon, former Auckland mayoral candidate Fa’anānā Efeso Collins, and, at No 15 on the list, former Wellington mayor Celia Wade-Brown - among others.
The party’s rise in the polls this year can be traced back to June when it started rolling out its seven key election policy planks - well ahead of its rivals.
The first was its wealth tax, with associated income guarantee, income tax cuts and a welfare overhaul.
This was followed by a plan to end homelessness, better support renters and increase housing supply, reduce emissions and improve housing and energy use, and provide universal dental care and better marine protections, among other policies.
Around July was when Labour ruled out a wealth and/or capital gains tax while Chris Hipkins was leader, which was also followed shortly by a bump in support for the Greens.
Ahead of the party’s AGM in August, co-leader Marama Davidson told the Herald it was looking to mop up disaffected Labour voters as it battled with National in the centre.
Internal polling seen by the Herald showed a rising pool of potential Green voters at 30 per cent - up from 24 per cent prior to the 2020 election - and of those deemed “on the fence”, the bulk were Labour voters.
And it appears to have worked, rising from an average of about 7-8 per cent then to close to 15 per cent now.
Shaw said releasing their policies early and well-spaced apart was a deliberate strategy.
They decided their seven main priorities and set out release dates, beginning with the most contentious of all - a wealth tax.
“It allowed us to spend the rest of the time explaining it.”
That can be seen in the nature of public meetings the party has been holding, where questions are often detailed about their policies.
“The big parties have been putting something out one day and something else the next, almost gazumping themselves. Whereas we have been consistently repeating the message.”
And at a time when Labour has been criticised for being too similar to National, the Greens have clearly stood for something.
“It helped us to differentiate. I think, also, frankly, it helped us to define the campaign. You know, I think that we have done a really good job of kind of pointing out to New Zealand just how unequal our tax system is. And that if we were to have a fairer tax system, then we could deal with some of the things that have been really challenging for us as a country.”
Shaw said having fewer resources than the two major parties and Act meant they had to be more “targeted” in their campaigning.
It’s why they have been in fewer locations across the country and predominantly in urban environments - Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin - where their largest voter bases existed. It’s why they are often at universities and why they hold many public meetings and events. On walkabouts, the Herald has also seen deep engagement with community organisations and networks, particularly around environmental and social activism - an ode to the party’s roots.
The party’s MPs have also largely been on brand in their messaging, defining every issue as a “political choice”, be it ending poverty or solving climate change.
“We are running a campaign based on hope and there is not a lot of that in the rest of the campaign - it is pretty bleak.
“We want to remind people the political stories that are told by other parties suit other parties, they are not statements of truth. It is a political choice.”
But Shaw said the biggest impact has come from the size of their ground campaign.
“The big breakthrough for us over the course of the last couple of election cycles has been our ground campaign, door knocking, phone calling I’m talking literally hundreds of thousands of New Zealanders.”
He said they had a record number of volunteers and with a week to go had already reached more people through door knocking and phone calls than in 2020.
“That mobilisation been an absolute game changer for us,” he said.
He put it down to energy off the back of Chloe Swarbrick’s historic win in Auckland Central which, he said, showed young people could swing an election.
It’s what has seen an even larger volunteer campaign get behind Tamatha Paul in Wellington Central, he said.
Along with those two electorates the party is also running two-tick campaigns in Mt Albert with Ricardo Menendez-March and Julie-Anne Genter in Rongotai.
In past elections they have done so sparingly.
Shaw said his favourite part of the campaign was now that voting was open.
“It’s been a long campaign but usually my favourite moments are now, when people are out voting and the country takes on a slightly festival feel and there is some energy to it.”
But while the Greens are on the rise, Labour is still polling below 30 per cent and with Te Pāti Māori in single figures, no recent polls have shown the left bloc able to form a government.
Shaw said despite record numbers in the polls they “absolutely” wanted to be in government.
Shaw said he would not comment on what Labour was doing, but added that in the past polls had been “different” to what was expected.
“In 2017 nobody was calling a coalition between Labour, the Greens and NZ First.
“In 2020 nobody called a majority Labour government.
“In these last few weeks small movements in the polls can fundamentally change the outcome There is some bounciness. I am just not prepared to call it until it’s over.”