Election 2023: Green Party strategy to take Labour’s disaffected voters

A more progressive Labour is how the Green Party is branding itself in this year’s election campaign, hoping to mop up disaffected voters as its traditional ally battles National for the centre vote.

It comes as internal polling seen by the Herald shows a rising pool of potential Green voters at 30 per cent - up from 24 per cent prior to the 2020 election - and of those deemed “on the fence”, the bulk are Labour voters.

In an interview with the Herald ahead of the party’s AGM this weekend in Tāmaki Makaurau, co-leader Marama Davidson said they were not anticipating any surprises of the same magnitude as last year, when fellow co-leader James Shaw failed to get the 75 per cent support of members needed to be re-elected.

The move, instigated by members of the Young Greens and Green Left Network, ultimately saw Shaw reinstated but only after a somewhat messy and public affair in which then-colleague Elizabeth Kerekere considered challenging him for the job.

The party will also be hoping to show a sense of unity in an election year, putting behind them the most recent scandal in which Kerekere ultimately resigned after appearing to call fellow MP Chloe Swarbrick a “crybaby” in a group chat, and other allegations about her behaviour (all of which Kerekere herself has denied).

Davidson pointed to two key policy planks around ending poverty and inequality they had already unveiled: the first was a wealth tax, with associated income tax cuts and a welfare overhaul.

This was followed by a plan to end homelessness, better support renters and increase housing supply.

“They’ve all landed really well for us, so we’re all pretty excited going into the AGM,” Davidson said.

Shaw will deliver the first major speech on Saturday, covering the party’s achievements working alongside Labour.

Davidson will unveil the manifesto on Sunday, outlining the party’s key priorities, with more specific climate, environment, Te Tiriti o Waitangi and health policies to be launched in the coming months.

According to the Herald’s poll of polls, the Green Party vote share has slipped over the past year, from hovering around 9 to 10 per cent now down to about 7 to 8 per cent.

The model predicts that share could grow as high as just under 11 per cent on election night, or drop as low as 6 per cent.

Davidson said they didn’t have any specific target but were aiming to increase the number of MPs they currently had (10).

She also pointed out they were defying history as a smaller party in Government in maintaining polling generally above the 7.9 per cent they got in the 2020 election.

But it is still a far cry from the 11 and 10 per cent the party received in the 2011 and 2014 elections respectively.

Davidson said over the past term they had seen the amount of available votes grow to 30 per cent, based on their own polling. These are voters who had considered voting Green.

“That is because people know that the pace of change is not happening fast enough, and that’s primarily around climate action, protecting nature and inequality.”

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins drew some pushback earlier in the year after scrapping a range of climate and environmental policies, refocusing resources on cost-of-living-related measures. This built on wider dissatisfaction including not fulfilling a promise to ban mining on conservation land.

Davidson said they had Labour members coming to meetings interested in pushing for more Green influence.

“We know that that’s where some of that desire is coming from, but it will be across the board as well.”

After the 2020 election and Labour’s majority victory, the Greens entered into a cooperation agreement, retaining Shaw in the climate change space and Davidson as Minister for the Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence, both outside Cabinet.

Davidson said despite being outside Cabinet, they had managed to get the strongest action on climate “in five years than in the past 30″ and launched a national 25-year strategy to eliminate family and sexual violence.

“A top priority for us to rebalance wealth, to end homelessness, a pledge to renters but also boosting up affordable public and community supply. And we’ve got other headline policies to come, which will be our priorities.”

Davidson said they were not worried about support increasing for Te Pāti Māori, with which they shared many similar policies.

Davidson said the prospect of a National and Act Government was “scary” for what could happen to policies around climate change and addressing inequality.

“This is the last election that we have to avoid the worst possible impacts of climate change.”

Another shift for the party this election was the increase in “two-tick” campaigns, where candidates campaign for both the electorate and party vote.

There are already an unprecedented four two-tick campaigns for the party ahead of this year’s election in October, including Chloe Swarbrick again in Auckland Central, Julie Anne Genter in Rongotai and Tamatha Paul in Wellington Central.

“It is a clear shift. Chloe’s win [in 2020] was a turning point for the Green Party, the first electorate win in a generation since Jeanette Fitzsimons in Coromandel [in 1999].

“That’s been really important for the members to be able to see that actually, we can give it a good go. It’s an evolution of the party.”

Michael Neilson is a political reporter based at Parliament in Wellington. He has been a journalist since 2016, first at the Gisborne Herald before joining the NZ Herald in 2018. He started in the Press Gallery team in 2021.