It would require relatively small movements of votes on current polling, but it would almost certainly have to involve New Zealand First falling just under the 5 per cent threshold.
Several recent polls, including last week’s 1News Verian poll, had New Zealand First just above the threshold on 6 per cent and needed by National and Act to get to 61 seats.
The Herald’s Poll of Polls prediction has New Zealand First sitting at 5.7 per cent with Friday’s Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll added to the mix as well.
There are numerous combinations of small movements that could change the outcome of the election from one led by National.
Using the Herald Poll of Polls as the starting point, the following scenario, as an example, would lead to a Labour-led Government, with National and Act on 59 seats and Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori on 61 seats:
National, currently on 35.8 per cent, falls by 1 point to 34.8 per cent.
Labour, currently on 26.8 per cent, rises by 2.1 points to 28.9 per cent.
The Greens, currently on 12. 3 per cent, rise by 1 point to 13.3 per cent.
Act, currently on 10.6 per cent, drops by 1 point to 9.6 per cent.
New Zealand First, currently on 5.7 per cent, drops by 1 point to 4.7 per cent.
Te Pāti Māori, on 2.8 per cent, remains unchanged.
In this scenario, the movement is generally a three-point movement away from the centre-right to the left.
There are other scenarios that readers can try for themselves by moving the slider up or down over various parties for different outcomes.
The Herald’s head of data journalism, Chris Knox, who created the interactive graphic, said if current predictions were accurate and voters didn’t change, National, Act and New Zealand First would be in a position to form a government.
“But within the margin of error or given that people’s voting intentions can change even within a week or so, then a relatively small change is needed to go from where the polls are predicting the outcome will be now, to Labour actually being in power.”
Knox said the biggest impact on the outcome at present is whether New Zealand First reaches the 5 per cent threshold.
If it didn’t make it, and there was a small shift in support from the right to the left, it would make it easier for Labour to form a government.
Knox said on the basis of the voter turnout of 2020, and using today’s Herald Poll of Polls as the reference, New Zealand First could fall below 5 per cent if it lost about 30,000 votes.
The scenario above, in which Labour could lead a government, could occur with a theoretical shift of about 90,000 voters - say, 30,000 dropping for each of New Zealand First, National and Act, with, say, 60,000 going to Labour and 30,000 to the Greens.
Assuming that New Zealand First did make the 5 per cent threshold, it is theoretically possible that Labour could form a government with the Greens and Te Pāti Māori, but that would require a much bigger shift in current voter sentiment.
National leader Christopher Luxon has made it clear that his preferred option is a National-Act government, rather than having to deal with New Zealand First.
But there have also been some mixed messages from National over the past fortnight.
Luxon gave the green light to New Zealand First in a video posted on social media, confirming that National’s preferred partner was Act but that he would be willing to work with New Zealand First if necessary.
Perhaps realising he had given National supporters “permission” to vote for New Zealand First, Luxon then slammed on the brakes and highlighted how much he did not want to work with Winston Peters - and even said in a leaders’ debate that he did not know him.
Former Prime Minister Sir John Key joined the National campaign last week to dangle the prospect of National being left “in limbo land” on election night with an uncertain result.
That has been followed up by National campaign ads reinforcing the possibility of having “eight weeks of coalition talks” with New Zealand First, as happened in 1996 with parallel negotiations.
The anti-New Zealand First campaign continued on Saturday with suggestions by campaign manager Chris Bishop that National might not be able to reach an agreement with New Zealand First or that there could be a hung Parliament.
It is all in the name of helping to give National a cleaner result to work with - but if it is successful in knocking out New Zealand First, it comes at a risk of clearing a path, albeit a narrow one, for Labour.
