It was never Christopher Luxon’s plan to become National Party leader so early in his career - after just a year in Parliament.
That was going to happen in his second term.
The assumption was that Judith Collins would be given a full term and would lead National into the 2023 election - having been called on during the leadership emergency in 2020 - but that she would fall short.
The assumption was that while National might do better in 2023 than it had its 25.6 per cent in 2020, it would not have a hope of beating Labour which had got 50 per cent as the first single majority Government under the MMP voting system.
Luxon would take over after the 2023 election and lead National into Government in 2026.
But like many things in politics, it didn’t go to plan.
It did not account for the waning popularity of Labour and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on the other side of the Covid pandemic, which made a win by National more imaginable.
Nor did it account for the caucus being so disgruntled with Collins that it passed a no-confidence vote in her in late 2021, after Luxon had been an MP for only a year.
So Luxon put up his hand and took the leadership after his first year in Parliament rather than during his fourth year.
The question is whether Luxon would be given another term as leader if he failed to lead National into government on October 14.
While the last few polls have put National and Act ahead and able to form a government, the most recent gave them a razor-thin majority, of 61 seats to 59 for Labour, the Greens and Te Pati Maori.
The leadership issue will have to be addressed after the election under National’s rules.
Labour MPs have a prescriptive constitution that requires MPs to have a leadership vote within three months of an election.
The wording in National’s constitution is more laissez-faire but still requires affirmative action. It says: “The Parliamentary Section shall appoint its Leader as soon as practicable after each General Election.:
In terms of National Party history, it is not likely that Luxon would survive to fight another election as leader.
The last National Party leader that survived to fight another election after a loss was Jim Bolger. He gained the leadership in March 1986, led National at the 1987 election in which the Fourth Labour Government won a second term, and then led National to victory in 1990.
Jenny Shipley, Bill English and Judith Collins were deposed after their election losses in 1999, 2002 and 2020; Don Brash and Bill English in his second leadership stint stepped down after losses in 2005 and 2017; Simon Bridges was deposed before getting the chance to lead the party to an election; and John Key stepped down before ever suffering an election loss.
It is possible, even likely, that Luxon would step down as an accountability measure rather than be pushed.
The most obvious and likely successor would be Nicola Willis, Luxon’s Wellington-based deputy leader, National’s finance spokeswoman, and mother of four school-aged kids.
Her loyalty to Luxon this term has been unimpeachable. She has been able to keep her ambition in check but could not be expected to do so for another term.
She is more respected than liked in National having done well in Finance from a standing start two years ago, against Labour’s seasoned operator in Finance Minister Grant Robertson.
She is as presentable in the media, if not more so than Luxon, although she has a tendency to lapse into student debating style in the House.
With her high profile, she has emerged more as a co-leader to Luxon than a deputy.
It would be a surprise if she had any serious competition for a leadership vacancy following the election.
There is the occasional murmuring that East Coast Bays MP Erica Stanford could be a leader in waiting. Maybe one day but not compared to Willis, she is not.
Stanford would be a better deputy for Willis, although that would never happen in National. It would be too radical a step for National to have two women in the leadership team. Willis would need a male deputy, even if it were a token male.
That highlights what would be a conundrum for Willis – who to have as deputy. It is not an issue that vexes the public but it matters internally and is usually a carefully tuned decision.
These days, the leader almost always gets to choose his or her deputy either through personal choice or through a managed negotiation to bring together caucus factions.
And while gender balance is more important in Labour leadership combos, National aims to have a balance between either liberal and conservative elements of the party and/or urban and rural.
That is evident in most leader and deputy combos in the post-Muldoon era: Jim McLay and Jim Bolger; Jim Bolger and Don McKinnon; Jenny Shipley and Wyatt Creech; Bill English and Roger Sowry; Don Brash and Gerry Brownlee; John Key and Bill English; Bill English and Paula Bennett; Simon Bridges and Paula Bennett; Todd Muller and Nikki Kaye; Judith Collins and Shane Reti; and Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis.
Along with Willis, Stanford and Chris Bishop are leading lights of National’s liberal wing and therefore any combo of any two of them is unlikely.
That narrows down who Willis would team up with. It would need to be someone who is not from Wellington, and someone who would not put her in the shade.
Todd Muller would have been ideal were he not retiring from Parliament.
It would be too early for Tama Potaka. He is still so uncomfortable in the House that he needs to write out his speeches word for word.
It would need to be someone who could actually deputise for her in all her leadership duties if needed, in the House, in the media, in the party.
Simeon Brown would be a possibility but only because there was no one else. Willis would not be spoilt for choice.
Willis’ most capable and proven deputy would actually be Christopher Luxon. He could also become finance spokesman and eventually Minister of Finance in a Willis-led government.
Achieving deputy leadership in one’s second term would normally be considered a success.
Audrey Young covers politics as the New Zealand Herald’s senior political correspondent. She was named Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards in 2023, 2020 and 2018. She was previously political editor, leading the Herald’s Press Gallery team.
OPINION: Four ways for President Kamala Harris to make a difference to climate change.