OPINION
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Welcome to the Politics Briefing. Shadow finance minister Nicola Willis is coming under sustained pressure over the funding of National’s proposed tax cuts and the costings that sit - or don’t sit - behind them. National continues to withhold them, even when faced with criticism by a range of economists who believe Willis could be up to $2.1 billion short over four years.
Willis told TVNZ this morning she would resign if National didn’t deliver tax reduction, but that is neither here nor there because the issue is not about whether they would be delivered, but about how (National could always borrow more or slash spending further to fund them if the proposed 15 per cent tax on luxury homes falls short).
Michael Reddell, a retired Reserve Bank economist who spends a lot of time on his ‘Croaking Cassandra’ blog criticising the Government, said National’s hunkering-down approach to the critique by him and two other economists on the foreign buyers’ tax made him more nervous about them wanting to run the government in a matter of weeks.
In last night’s ASB finance debate, Willis claimed National’s costings were set out on pages 18 and 19 of the party’s tax policy. Finance Minister Grant Robertson happened to have a copy of the policy on his lectern and challenged her to point to the actual costings, as did moderator Jack Tame, but she didn’t because she couldn’t.
On page 18 and 19 are headline statements such as “sales numbers are simulated by applying the average pre-ban share of property sales to current property transfer statistics, corrected for behavioural impacts of the tax and the proposed $2 million threshold”. They are not what any reasonable person would call costings.
National is also rejecting the suggestion set out in previous Treasury advice that a tax on luxury homes would lead to increased house prices further down the price chain. “When Gucci take their prices up, I don’t see a lot of prices going up at The Warehouse,” Christopher Luxon said yesterday, dismissing any flow-on effect.
There could be several reasons why National is hunkering down: its costings might not be up to standard and it doesn’t want to expose them; it doesn’t mind the attention because it amplifies its promised tax cuts; and/or it anticipates there will be plenty of middling Farmers-class homeowners who may be quietly thrilled at the prospect of a tax on luxury homes inflating the value of their own home.
Green Party co-leader James Shaw had an excellent night and won the ASB debate in my view, including his zinger pointing out that it is quite a change to have National defending new taxes and Labour opposing them. See Thomas Coughlan’s report below.
There have been debates galore this week, and Newstalk ZB host Heather du Plessis-Allan moderated a rural issues debate at Mystery Creek last night. It has to be said that National’s spokesman, Todd McClay, did surprisingly well, especially for a townie.
In other campaign news, no Labour leader in an election year can visit the West Coast without calling on Rūnanga legend Nan Dixon, and Chris Hipkins made the pilgrimage yesterday, as Michael Neilson reported - with some great photos of the Coast by George Heard. A 1News Verian poll this week also had relatively good news for Hipkins - Labour had dropped by only one point in the three weeks since its previous poll, not the slump of previous polls.
The poll also found National and Act could form a majority government, but only just - with 62 seats - and it had New Zealand First returning to Parliament over the 5 per cent threshold.
New Zealand First leader Winston Peters continued to excel at slightly weird but catchy social media postings. Following on from “This is not our first rodeo,” he took to the stage of an empty auditorium this week and recited the Rudyard Kipling poem If - adjusted to be gender neutral.
Peters has always been fond of poetry. He recited poetry at the very first meeting of his I covered last century for the New Zealand Herald as social welfare reporter. It was at the Auckland Town Hall and it was about superannuation, so naturally he recited Dylan Thomas: “Do not go gentle into that good night, old age should burn and rave at close of day; rage, rage against the dying of the light.”
New Zealand First will be last out of the gate when it releases its party list ranking after all nominations close at midday today.
“I think not only is National’s tax plan completely cooked, I think the economic credibility has gone down the toilet with it as well - if they were so confident in their numbers, they wouldn’t hesitate to release them” - Chris Hipkins on National’s plan for funding tax cuts.
“Chris Hipkins is a 20-year career politician, he’s a champion debater and probably the best debater in our Parliament and probably New Zealand. I haven’t even done a debate before and I lose a lot to my wife” - Christopher Luxon hypes expectations of his opponent ahead of the first leaders’ debate on Tuesday.
“Luxon and I go into the debate on roughly even terms. He has actually been in his job longer than I’ve been in mine. We’re both debating for the first time” - Chris Hipkins dampens expectations about Tuesday’s debate.
To former Prime Minister Helen Clark for having been admitted yesterday to the small, prestigious group of 12 respected global leaders, The Elders, which was established by Nelson Mandela.
Goes to a tetchy Christopher Luxon for telling RNZ’s Craig McCulloch to “calm down, calm down” when he was asking a question perfectly calmly about National’s tax costings.
On the campaign trail: National Party deputy leader and finance spokeswoman Nicola Willis says she will resign if the party does not deliver tax cuts.
Tax costings: Modelling undertaken by three economists shows a $2.1 billion hole in National’s foreign buyer tax calculations.
Barbie billboard: A suspicious Act campaign billboard with a Barbie-inspired design has been seen next to SH29 in Tauranga - and leader David Seymour loves it.
Meet the leaders: The Greens’ James Shaw hits the pool table for the first time in 12 years with Herald political reporter Michael Neilson.
Meet the leaders II: Act’s David Seymour could be New Zealand’s next deputy PM, but his mini-golfing skills could do with a polish.
Audrey Young is the New Zealand Herald’s senior political correspondent. She was named Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards in 2023, 2020 and 2018.
For more political news and views, listen to On the Campaign, the Herald’s politics podcast.
It follows concerns about use-of-force powers being given to staff.