Election 2023: Audrey Young - the key issue of this year’s campaign, and its MVP

Hot and cold: Labour's Chris Hipkins and National's Christopher Luxon at the third leaders' debate. Photo / TVNZ

OPINION:

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Welcome to the Politics Briefing. It’s time for some reflections on the election campaign and last night’s href="https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-tvnz-debate-the-final-showdown-between-national-leader-christopher-luxon-and-labour-leader-chris-hipkins/IEDH7ML6LVEBFJFWEY3ZHEF7KM/" target="_blank">final leaders’ debate between Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon.

The centrepiece of the campaign has been National’s tax and fiscal plans. They have been as important to Labour as they have been to National because, in the absence of substantial policies, much of Labour’s campaign has involved chipping away at the credibility of National’s plans.

The extent of Labour’s success was evident in the leaders’ debate last night. Luxon barely referred to those plans and certainly not to the 3000 average families who would get “up to” $250 a fortnight, or to the foreign buyer tax on luxury homes, or the $2 billion in savings on welfare spending over four years.

It was central to Hipkins’ attacks and he got himself worked up over Luxon’s failure to concede it was a cut to what beneficiaries would otherwise get. Hipkins was too het up. Luxon was too evasive. And you can’t get away with promising to deliver a free trade agreement with India. Like most of the Herald’s experts, I gave the debate to Hipkins.

Another section of today’s Herald, Media Insider, asked those of us covering the campaign for our reckons and, in my view, the most valuable player has been the CTU economist Craig Renney. Almost single-handedly, he has highlighted deficiencies in National’s plans, which Labour has then prosecuted. The best ad was Winston Peters on a horse with a cowboy hat saying “This is not our first rodeo.”

Winston Peters wins the ad race.

Some of the bizarre decisions of the campaign have included the way National turned the focus on New Zealand First by ruling the party in, and then attempting a course-correction by raising the prospect of a second election. Other big moments included Act’s proud policy to cut 15,000 public servants, and its suggestion it could sit on the cross benches and negotiate vote-by-vote with National.

They have all served to enhance the likelihood of another Winston Peters comeback and his party holding the balance of power. Whether he can be trusted or not to do what he says he will do is a moot point. In a piece outlining his coalition positions before and after each MMP election, I set out how he has mainly kept his word.

Christopher Luxon has been a highly disciplined campaigner, relentlessly on message, to the point where he has earned a reputation for not answering questions. That needs to change quickly if he becomes Prime Minister.

Quote unquote

“Your moral compass is entirely wrong” - Chris Hipkins to Christopher Luxon in the TVNZ debate over reducing increases to benefits by $500 million a year compared to Labour, while giving tax breaks to landlords.

“Here Chris goes again, misinformation, we are not cutting benefits ... You need to listen to Taylor Swift [and] calm down” - Christopher Luxon’s response.

Micro quiz

Can you name the seven Māori seats? (Answer at the end of this article.)

Brickbat

Goes to all those who persist with the fiction that votes for parties that fall under 5 per cent or don’t win an electorate seat get reallocated to successful parties. They are not reallocated. They are disregarded.

Bouquet

Top moderator Patrick Gower. Photo / Newshub

Goes to Patrick Gower for running the best debate of the campaign, the Newshub leaders’ debate.

Latest political news and views

Leaders’ debate: National leader Christopher Luxon and Labour leader Chris Hipkins have faced off for the last time as they try to capture last-minute votes ahead of election day.

Debate verdict: Herald political editors Claire Trevett, Audrey Young, Thomas Coughlan and Shayne Currie pick the winner from the third leaders’ debate.

Opinion: The next Government could be even worse than the one we’ve got now - and Christopher Luxon only has himself to blame, writes Matthew Hooton.

Campaign hits and misses: Media Insider rounds up seven political journalists for five questions about their take on the 2023 election campaign (as well as the All Blacks’ quarterfinal chances).

Opinion: Can Winston Peters be trusted not to make a post-election deal with Labour? Audrey Young looks at Peters’ history.

Satire: In Steve Braunias’s secret diary of the leaders, Shipwreck Chippy paddles his flimsy raft and Spaceman Seymour floats in his tin can far above the world.

Opinion: The final polls before election day should be giving the National Party night terrors, writes Claire Trevett.

Polls: Two polls show National and Act will struggle to get over the line without the support of NZ First and Winston Peters.

Inform your vote: How do we fix our freshwater woes? Jamie Morton compares the parties’ environmental policies.

Analysis: Current polling suggests that National, Act and NZ First are most likely to be able to form a Government after election day, but what might that look like?

NZ First costings: New Zealand First’s manifesto includes promises for some of the biggest cuts to Government spending - and also massive increases.

Police leadership: In a thinly veiled criticism of Police Commissioner Andrew Coster, National’s Mark Mitchell says strong leadership has been missing from the police.

Undeclared shares: National MP Andrew Bayly did not declare to Parliament his shareholding in a company that contracts to government agencies.

Quiz answer: Te Tai Tokerau, Tāmaki Makaurau, Hauraki-Waikato, Te Tai Hauāuru, Waiariki, Ikaroa Rāwhiti and Te Tai Tonga.

Audrey Young is the New Zealand Herald’s senior political correspondent. She was named Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards in 2023, 2020 and 2018.

For more political news and views, listen to On the Campaign, the Herald’s politics podcast.

Election night coverage

A reminder that electoral rules prohibit media coverage of the campaign on Saturday (election day). But join us at nzherald.co.nz from 7pm for extensive live coverage and analysis as the results come in, featuring ZB’s Mike Hosking and Heather du Plessis-Allan and our panel of experts including Madison Reidy, Shayne Currie, Claire Trevett, Audrey Young and Barry Soper.

Follow our live coverage from 7pm on election night.