ANALYSIS
If Chris Hipkins again leads the Government after October’s election, there are likely to be some tough choices to make to accommodate the Green Party. Last week Audrey Young assessed what a National-Act Cabinet could look like. Today she turns her attention to a potential Labour-Greens-Māori Party Cabinet.
There is no question that Labour will need the Greens to have any chance of forming a government for a third term.
And there is no question that the Greens want to be in a full coalition and sitting around the Cabinet table and not be treated as they were in 2017. That has been stated by the leadership.
That would mean shrinking Labour’s current Cabinet, with some of its MPs moving down or out altogether.
But with almost certain retirements by Labour ministers part-way through the term, there would also be a chance to add four or five new ministers.
Any Labour Government would most likely need the support of the Māori Party as well as the Greens. Like the Greens it could drive a hard bargain on policy gains, but It is not clear whether the Māori Party would want ministers as well.
Act and National have accused Labour of not having enough talent to fill the two current vacancies in Cabinet and take it to the normal Cabinet of 20.
But Hipkins has taken the view that adding two ministers and then having to subtract them in three months to make way for Green ministers would be more trouble than it was worth.
And it is easy to overlook the fact that this year, Hipkins has already significantly refreshed the Cabinet with new ministers – the majority of which were not the result of a sacking, defection or resignation.
When he became Prime Minister in January, Hipkins promoted six MPs to become ministers: Ginny Andersen, Barbara Edmonds, Willow-Jean Prime, Duncan Webb, Rino Tirikatene and Deborah Russell. Another two, Rachel Brooking and Jo Luxton, became new ministers as a result of Stuart Nash’s sacking and Meka Whaitiri’s defection respectively.
In the event Labour could form the next government, Hipkins would have some challenges in maintaining a balance between renewal and experience while meeting the heightened expectations of the Green Party in a Cabinet of 20.
The renewal in any Labour-Greens government would initially be provided by the Greens, and by Labour part-way through in a major reshuffle.
The resignation of two former rising stars, Michael Wood and Kiri Allan, reinforced the value of the safe hands of the experienced hands, especially Andrew Little.
If Labour is re-elected, voters should expect those safer hands to retain prominent roles in Cabinet for at least a year if not the first half of the term.
After the tumultuous year Hipkins has had since becoming Prime Minister in January, further upheavals should be minimised for the sake of their agencies, many of which have had a high turnover of ministers. Labour’s big renewal could then occur at the first reshuffle.
For that reason, the scenario below includes only a few changes for Labour ministers in the short-term, to adjust workload and to share some areas with the Green Party.
This scenario assumes that up to five Labour ministers would announce their retirements during the next term of Government and relinquish their ministerial roles: Grant Robertson, Kelvin Davis, Damien O’Connor (first elected in 1993), David Parker (2002) and Nanaia Mahuta (1996).
That is not to say that they should retire. O’Connor, after a wobbly start, has had a blinder of a term as Trade Minister and Mahuta has found her feet as Foreign Minister, as was evident during the recent visit of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
But given that Labour’s chances of winning a third term this year are not great, if it did pull it off again, the long-servers would likely see the imperative for renewal approaching a fourth term.
That would see a large number of portfolios changing hands including Corrections, Children, Foreign Affairs, Trade, Environment, Transport, Attorney-General and probably Finance.
Grant Robertson is so valuable to Labour he could have Finance for as long as he wanted. But his weariness with politics and nagging health issues were evident when he turned down the chance to become Prime Minister when Jacinda Ardern retired. He has not said he would step down next term - but nor has he committed to doing a full term.
David Parker has effectively ruled himself out of contention from an economic job under Hipkins’ leadership, given his recent resignation from Revenue. That was in protest at Hipkins’ captain’s call ruling out a wealth tax under his leadership.
Barbara Edmonds is a possibility for Finance but a long shot. The highly able first-term MP and tax expert has taken over Economic Development and Revenue in the wash-up of resignations. But she does not yet have the experience to do the politics, which is crucial in Finance.
Robertson’s most likely successor had previously been recognised as his associates, Megan Woods or Michael Wood. Wood’s rehabilitation from his conflict-of-interest scandal will not be rapid enough for that. Megan Woods is probably the most likely.
But there is now a case for Andrew Little to at least be in contention for Finance if Robertson goes part-way through next term. Since January, he has taken on Defence and Immigration on top of his existing hefty workload and his stocks are high.
He was first elected only 12 years ago, and retirement should be out of the question next term. He has seniority as a former leader, the decisiveness, and the political skills.
Little would also be in contention for Foreign Minister when Mahuta stepped down.
On the issue of David Parker, Hipkins would be justified in not reappointing him to anything after his resignation as Revenue Minister so close to an election. He may have resigned on a point of principle but that does not negate it being an act of disunity that has been weaponised well by the Opposition. The time for heroic gestures is year one and two, not election year.
However, even if Hipkins is not forgiving, he is pragmatic. He would want to avoid a fight with the left of the Labour Party membership, who already count Parker as their martyr.
And especially after the weekend announcements on Transport, Hipkins should recognise that Parker’s intellect, his grasp of details, and the general respect in which he is held tip the scales in his favour at a crucial time.
It is possible that Parker could count himself out of politics entirely after he finally gets his RMA reforms through in the next sitting block and after developing Labour’s transport policy for the election. But he looks as though he is enjoying the Transport challenge.
As a former environmental lawyer, junior Rachel Brooking is well placed to take over from Parker in Environment and Attorney-General when he decides to leave.
The Education Minister has been a disappointment. Perhaps it is not surprising that as a former school principal, she still appears more focused on teachers than on students and parents.
The reputational damage she did to herself over failing to correct an answer in Parliament, not to mention the distraction to the Government agenda, has been a lesson for every minister and wannabe minister.
But as a former Associate Minister to Hipkins, he would be likely to give her another chance in a re-elected Government. There are no obvious successors in the current crop of ministers. Jo Luxton is an associate. But if there was a change part-way through next term, Tangi Utikere, a former history teacher, could be a contender.
As Hipkins’ deputy, she could have any portfolio she wanted, besides Finance. A third term as Social Development Minister would be unusual but there are clearly still some areas in welfare she wants to progress and it makes sense to keep it for a bit longer. She and Ginny Andersen have been Hipkins’ go-to ministers this year during ministerial crises and could be again if Tinetti needed replacing with an experienced minister.
In the scenario below, Priyanca Rahakrishnan is moved from Cabinet to a minister outside Cabinet.
Willow-Jean Prime is actually the last into the current Cabinet and may have been first off, except for the fact she was named No 9 on the Labour list.
Deborah Russell is dropped as a minister altogether with the chance of returning with the eventual retirement of other ministers. That would also be the appropriate time to rehabilitate Michael Wood back to the ministry. But the competition would be strong.
Labour MPs with a prospect of promotion include Palmerston North MP and senior whip Tangi Utikere, list MP and junior whip Camilla Belich, Upper Harbour MP Vanushi Walters, Banks Peninsula MP Tracey McLellan, Manurewa MP Arena Williams and Northcote MP Shanan Halbert.
However a big swing against Labour could see Belich, Walters and Halbert out of Parliament altogether.
In the scenario below, the Green Party would double the number of ministers it had in its first deal with Labour in 2017, taking its ministerial count to six (but with the possibility of adding a seventh during the term if future vacancies allowed it).
But it would be achieved in two stages to allow for Labour to have a process of attrition rather than slash and burn with its current ministers.
The Greens could start the term with three in Cabinet and three outside (six), and finish the term with five in Cabinet and two outside (seven).
The trade-off for having only three in Cabinet to begin is to give the Greens more ministerial positions overall – two more than New Zealand First’s four in Labour’s last coalition.
In 2017, the Greens were relegated to ministerial roles outside Cabinet and an under-secretary position as a condition of Labour’s full coalition deal with New Zealand First which had four Cabinet ministers.
It was a situation that suited all three at the time. Labour needed both parties to govern. The Greens had never been in government and its confidence and supply agreement, rather than a coalition, gave it some distance.
The Greens’ three ministerial roles outside Cabinet were: James Shaw, at that stage was the sole leader, who had Climate Change, Julie Anne Genter who had Women and associate roles in Transport and Health, and Eugenie Sage, who had Conservation and Land Information.
After the 2020 election, when Labour did not need the Greens, it still offered ministerial roles to the Green co-leaders, Shaw and Marama Davidson.
Shaw kept Climate Change and Davidson became responsible for the Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence, and for homelessness as Associate Housing Minister.
It would make sense for Shaw to keep the Climate Change job for which he is widely admired.
And while Davidson has barely made a splash, she is almost certain to want to keep what she has got given that she is only just getting going on them. But she is badly underworked.
She could pick up the more meaty Conservation portfolio, assuming that would be one of the priority areas for the Greens.
Auckland Central MP Chloe Swarbrick, third ranked on the Green list, would be likely to go into Cabinet immediately. She has a particular interest in local government and adaptation to climate change.
In the end, the number of portfolios and which portfolios the Greens ended up with would depend on the policy gains achieved in any coalition talks. For small parties, there is no point having a minister for the sake of it, to shepherd in some other party’s policy.
Other ministers could include Julie Anne Genter, a transport expert, whose focus would be on expanding the low-emissions fleet, and public transport; Teanau Tuiono with Oceans and Fisheries, and an agriculture delegation to compass organic farming; and former lawyer Golriz Ghahraman, who has a special interest in refugees and electoral law.
Under this scenario, the minister to join the ministry part-way through the term could be Ricardo Menendez March who specialises in social development or one of the newcomers, such as Lan Pham from Christchurch at No 6 on the list, or Steve Abel at No 9. It is not impossible that Pham could immediately become a minister, perhaps taking on Conservation.
In all likelihood, Labour would need both the Greens and the Māori Party to lead a government - New Zealand First has already ruled out going with Labour again.
And the chances are that the Greens and the Māori Party – and Act in any negotiations with National – would set much higher expectations than they have in previous support deals with bigger parties.
It is difficult to imagine the Māori Party wanting to be ministers of the Crown. But it is not inconceivable that the co-leaders could claim portfolios.
Rawiri Waititi, for example, could claim Māori Development and Associate Minister for Arts Culture and Heritage, with responsibility for state funding of Māori arts, culture and heritage.
And Debbie Ngarewa-Packer could claim Oceans and Fisheries and Whanau Ora, the social service delivery model established by Māori Party founder Dame Tariana Turia.
The difficulty with accepting ministerial roles is that the workload is such that the building and maintenance of the party can be neglected. That was certainly the case when previous Māori Party members accepted ministerial posts under confidence and supply agreements for a National government.
The Māori Party could eschew ministerial posts, support a Labour-Greens coalition on confidence and supply but assess all other government measures on a case-by-case basis. If that was the outcome, the party could expect to negotiate a big bump in staffing resources in order to carry out that role.
And under that scenario, the Labour-Greens coalition could assign a minister, perhaps Willie Jackson, or a senior staff member to be solely responsible for the liaison with the Māori Party.
This is the scenario for a Labour-Greens Cabinet, with little immediate change for Labour and with the Greens providing the renewal until the big reshuffle partway through the term.
Chris Hipkins
Prime Minister
National Security and Intelligence
Carmel Sepuloni
Deputy Prime Minister
Social Development
Public Service
Arts, Culture and Heritage
Kelvin Davis
Children
Corrections
Māori Crown Relations
Grant Robertson
Finance
Sport and Recreation
Cyclone Recovery
Leader of the House
Megan Woods
Housing
Infrastructure
Energy and Resources
Building and Construction
Associate Finance
Ayesha Verrall
Health
Research, Science and Innovation
Kieran McAnulty
Local Government
Emergency Management
Land Information
Ginny Andersen
Police
Justice
Workplace Relations
Associate Treaty Negotiations
Seniors
Barbara Edmonds
Economic Development
Revenue
Digital Economy and Communications
Associate Finance
Pacific Peoples
Willie Jackson
Māori Development
Broadcasting
Māori Party liason
Andrew Little
Defence
Immigration
Treaty Negotiations
SIS, GCSB
Associate Finance
Damien O’Connor
Agriculture
Biosecurity
Trade
David Parker
Attorney-General
Transport
Environment
Nanaia Mahuta
Foreign Affairs
Willow-Jean Prime
Internal Affairs
Youth
Jan Tinetti
Education
Poverty Reduction
Peeni Henare
ACC
Tourism
Forestry
Whānau Ora
Veterans
James Shaw
Climate Change
Marama Davidson
Conservation
Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence
Associate Housing (homelessness)
Chloe Swarbrick
Associate Local Government (Climate adaptation)
Mental Health
Julie Anne Genter
Associate Transport
Women
Teanau Tuiono
Oceans and Fisheries
Associate Agriculture
Golriz Gharaman
Disability
Associate Justice
Associate Immigration
Rachel Brooking
Food Safety
Associate Environment
Associate Immigration
Jo Luxton
Early Childhood Education
Customs
Duncan Webb
Commerce and Consumer Affairs
SOEs
Small Business
Priyanca Radhakrishnan
Community and Voluntary Sector
Diversity, Inclusion and Ethnic Communities
Rino Tirikatene
Associate Trade
Courts
Statistics
Audrey Young covers politics as the New Zealand Herald’s senior political correspondent. She was named Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards in 2023, 2020 and 2018.
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