NZ Herald data journalist Julia Gabel explains all you need to know about special votes ahead of release to the public on November 3. Video / NZ Herald
OPINION:
This is a transcript of Audrey Young’s subscriber-only Premium Politics newsletter. To sign up, click on your profile at nzherald.co.nz and select ‘Newsletters’. For a step-by-step guide, click here.
Welcome to the Politics Briefing, on the day we find out just how big National’s winhas been and how many seats it has gained in electorates where the red flag has been flying high for generations.
As a guide, if the final results confirm that National has picked up New Lynn (provisionally a 483 majority for National), the win will be emphatic; if it confirms it has gained Te Atatū (provisionally 30 for National), it will be overwhelming; and if it takes Mt Albert (provisionally 106 for Labour), it will be utterly phenomenal - a win well beyond anyone’s expectations, a win more shocking than Gerry Brownlee losing Ilam in 2020. And Brownlee’s return to Parliament hangs in the balance as a list-only MP. The more electorate seats National wins in the final result, the fewer list MPs are needed. Brownlee sits on a knife’s edge as the effective No 4 list candidate.
National leader Christopher Luxon suggested yesterday that National knew how big its win would be and journalists who didn’t pick it were out of touch, which is a bit odd given he repeatedly said it would be a close election. Perhaps it is just one of those things you say in Opposition.
Incidentally, there has also been a marked shift in National’s position on the Grocery Commissioner, the newly created position within the Commerce Commission. Throughout the campaign, the party repeatedly mocked the position as being a person with “a clipboard” who would not be capable of keeping tabs on grocery prices. This week, however, in the wake of the Supie closure, Luxon has been very positive about the position. He said he has seen it work well in Britain, and that the new appointee in New Zealand should be given a chance. What a difference an election makes.
National’s position on the Grocery Commissioner, the newly created position within the Commerce Commission, has undergone a marked shift. Photo / 123RF
The most important part of the election result, however, is whether National and Act will need New Zealand First to govern, and if not, whether it would be worth their while doing a deal with the party anyway. From a journalist’s point of view, it would be a lot more eventful having New Zealand First in government than opposition. I’ve put the Herald’s interactive graphic on the provisional results at the bottom today.
Meanwhile, in his press conference yesterday, Luxon said he would be taking a look at the foreshore and seabed law in the wake of the latest Court of Appeal decision, which effectively lowers the hurdle for hapū and iwi to have customary title in coastal New Zealand, and which I’ve covered in a story below.
It is becoming all too common these days for the courts to say they don’t believe Parliament could possibly have meant for the law to do what it says and then set about rewriting the law to what they think it should be. We are not the United States.
Perhaps the Parliamentary Counsel office, which drafts the laws, needs to insert a Dr Seuss clause into its future drafts: “For the avoidance of doubt, this clause meant what it said and said what it meant; it’s Parliament’s will, 100 per cent.”
Quote unquote
“It’s lovely that they want to engage in this process” - Christopher Luxon responds to news that the Mongrel Mob is seeking legal advice about the possibility of having to cover their facial tattoos with foundation.
“It will have the uprising of the hikoi of all hikois” - Te Pāti Māori co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer at the notion that Parliament might revisit the foreshore and seabed law following the latest court decision (Newshub).
Micro quiz
What do former MPs Simon Bridges, Chris Finlayson, Sue Kedgeley, Margaret Wilson, Peter McCardle and Steven Joyce all have in common? (Answer below.)
Brickbat
To the critics of Lord Sumption, the UK intellectual visiting New Zealand who lifts thinking and debate on all manner of issues (recommendation: His 2019 Reith Lectures on the relationship between the courts and politics).
Bouquet
Rod Emmerson's cartoon - November 3, 2023.
To Wellington electoral law specialist Graeme Edgeler for valiantly and single-handedly defending the three weeks it has taken to count the special votes - but he’s on the losing side this time. Something’s got to change.
Quiz answer: They have all written books about themselves.
Audrey Young is the New Zealand Herald’s senior political correspondent. She was named Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards in 2023, 2020 and 2018.
For more political news and views, listen to On the Tiles, the Herald’s politics podcast.
