Election 2023: Audrey Young - National Party has earned the right to try tax plan; time squeeze on coalition talks

Prime Minister-elect Christopher Luxon at Parliament on November 3. Photo / Getty Images

OPINION:

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Welcome to the Politics Briefing as coalition talks progress in Wellington. The basic principle of negotiations - to focus on areas of agreement and to park areas of disagreement - doesn’t always work if there is disagreement on the basics.

The challenge for the three parties required to form the next New Zealand government - National, Act and NZ First - is when to exercise their veto over the other parties’ policies, with a sense of fairness.

Each party requires the support of the other two to progress any of their policy, if parliamentary approval for spending is required. But they also need to be cognisant of their respective election results. Remember that National got 38.08 per cent and a mandate to implement the centrepiece of its election policy, its tax cuts. Act got only 8.64 per cent and New Zealand First 6.08 per cent.

Both Act and New Zealand First joined the chorus of scepticism about how the tax cuts were going to be funded. But that can only be proven or disproven by their implementation. National was 100 per cent certain of its costings during the campaign and should be able to test that policy promise. National leader Christopher Luxon and Winston Peters, if he wants to be Foreign Minister, have an artificial deadline in needing to get things signed and sealed by Tuesday if they want to make the Apec summit hosted by Joe Biden in San Francisco by Thursday. That is likely to add impetus to getting an agreement by Sunday, an announcement by Monday, and swearing-in on Tuesday - in an ideal world.

It has been a topsy-turvy week for Chris Hipkins, who has earned his stripes as the most flexible Labour leader in recent years. After announcing he had been endorsed again as leader, he suggested there would be nothing unusual in Labour revisiting the wealth tax policy he had previously ruled out as Prime Minister, or the capital gains tax policy his predecessor, Jacinda Ardern, had ruled out. “Everything comes back onto the table and that includes a discussion around taxes, so in 2026, our tax policy could look quite different,” he told reporters on Tuesday. He must be aching from those somersaults.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins with newly elected deputy Carmel Sepuloni. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Meanwhile, it has been quite the week for other former Prime Ministers. Helen Clark received an honorary Doctor of Laws from the University of Toronto this week for her “outstanding contribution to the public good and her commitment to a just, thriving, equitable and sustainable world”, while Jacinda Ardern walked the green carpet in an evening gown at the Earthshot Prize awards ceremony in Singapore, of which she is a board member. Jim Bolger had his say on Act’s proposal for a referendum on the principles of the Treaty of Waitangi. And John Key had an audience with China’s Premier Li Qiang about unlicensed plantings of kiwifruit in China.

Quote unquote

“We had a three-week delay as a consequence of that [enrolments on election day] and I wish the media would focus on who caused that delay” - Winston Peters tells reporters to look at what dragged out the release of official election results.

”We are supporting this bill because it is the right thing to do” - Former NZ First MP Darroch Ball in 2020 telling Parliament why, despite a 10-day delay, his party supported the law change for election-day enrolments.

Micro quiz

What electorates are getting these new National MPs: Dana Kirkpatrick, James Meager and Rima Nakhle? (Answer below.)

Brickbat

NZ First's Shane Jones. Photo / Michael Cunningham

Goes to New Zealand First’s Shane Jones for over-sharing with the media waiting for coalition updates. We don’t need to know you’ve just been to Farmers or that you’ve just bought some new underwear.

Bouquet

Goes to New Zealand Herald head of data journalism Chris Knox for finding errors in the Electoral Commission’s official results. A details man.

Latest political news and views

Coalition negotiations: Act leader David Seymour has confirmed he has met with New Zealand First leader Winston Peters, saying they had a “great chat”.

Foreign buyers’ tax: Senior New Zealand First MP Shane Jones has cast doubt on National’s ability to get its foreign buyers’ tax across the line in coalition talks.

Vote errors: The Electoral Commission says it has found 15 voting places with “data entry errors” and that an entire ballot box was missed after a Herald investigation.

Winston Peters: NZ First leader Winston Peters has launched a broadside against the decision to allow people to enrol to vote on election day - a decision that he helped to put in place.

Opinion: Prime Minister-elect Christopher Luxon faces three risks as a coalition of chaos looms, writes Matthew Hooton.

Coalition power brokers: Audrey Young profiles the chiefs of staff at the centre of coalition negotiations between National, Act and New Zealand First.

Tax U-turn: Labour leader Chris Hipkins says all tax options are back on the party’s policy table.

Labour Party: Labour continues to struggle in the weeks following the party’s resounding election loss, as a new poll shows leader Chris Hipkins’ popularity plummeting.

Bullying accusation: Outgoing Labour minister Ginny Andersen says she has no recollection of raising her voice at two young volunteers whose mother has laid a complaint against her.

Political donations: Three businessmen who donated large sums to the National Party have had convictions relating to those donations overturned at the Court of Appeal.

Israel-Hamas war: Two expert academics say Green MP Chlöe Swarbrick’s use of a contentious slogan during a pro-Palestine rally in Auckland was divisive and inflammatory.

Lobbying: Former NZ First MP Fletcher Tabuteau is now a lobbyist for the firm Capital as his old party prepares to enter government with National and Act.

PM’s move: Prime Minister-elect Christopher Luxon is yet to decide whether he will move into Premier House or stay in his own apartment in Wellington.

Quiz answer: East Coast, Rangitata and Takanini

Audrey Young is the New Zealand Herald’s senior political correspondent. She was named Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards in 2023, 2020 and 2018.

For more political news and views, listen to On the Tiles, the Herald’s politics podcast.