But it is not the only sign. Public debt, which results from accumulated deficits, is even more important. Bill English reports the debt stands at about 25 per cent of the nation's output, which is healthier than many countries these days but not as healthy as it was when we last slipped into recession, just before the global financial crisis.
For that reason, Mr English should curb his talk of tax cuts. He was probably joking anyway, teasing the Opposition a little. As the custodian of the purse, Mr English has been less prone to tax-cutting talk than John Key and sometimes visibly nervous at Mr Key's propensity to promise a cut.
The Prime Minister should be content with his Government's reduction of income tax rates in 2010, especially the top rate that the previous Government had raised needlessly. A top rate of 33 per cent is reasonable and capable of surviving a change of government. A lower rate would last only until a Labour government returned.
If the surplus in the final account for the year that ended on June 30 can be sustained in the current year and projected to continue, the best use of it would be to reduce debt more quickly. The next best use would be to resume the contributions to the NZ Super Fund that the Government suspended six years ago.
The Super Fund has been performing well on its investments of the capital provided by the previous government from its Budget surpluses. It is a pool of domestic savings that reduces the country's dependence on foreign investment as well as building a buffer for future taxpayers who must pay the baby boomers' pensions.
There is no limit to the worthy social programmes that could use the surplus, but its best use is to strengthen the economy that generates the taxes that support the welfare of us all.