Politicians have been making merry with the arrival of a Budget surplus this week. In May when the Budget was drawn up and the long-expected surplus proved elusive, the Prime Minister said it did not matter very much anyway. On Wednesday he was beaming and high-fiving the Finance Minister, who started talking tax cuts.
Across the aisle, opposition parties waved their wish-lists with new confidence, calling for the surplus to be spent on child poverty, more hospital operations, more pre-school education ... you name it.
At the same time, they predicted the slender surplus would disappear as suddenly as it arrived. Economic activity is not increasing at the rate it was when the surplus was generated, the world economy is more worrying, business confidence is lower, the Christchurch rebuild is having delays and dairy prices are still depressed.
Both sides are right, and wrong. The surplus is worth celebrating, even if it does not last long. But it would be wrong to give it away in tax cuts, even if it proves to be sustainable. The Opposition is equally wrong to advocate spending it too soon, for it is right in saying the economic outlook is clouded.
The surplus would be good news at any time, but particularly when the state of the world economy is worrying. A surplus is a sign that the public accounts are in a healthy position to help the country ride out a recession, if it happens.