Editorial: Political trembles escalate in London and Washington

Britain's Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Photo / AP

Editorial

It's been an even more uncertain time than "normal" in the United States and Britain in the past 48 hours as the political leaders of both countries have come, if possible, under even greater scrutiny than in recent months. Yet further twists are likely, and all paths ahead are uncertain.

The Speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, launched an impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump over whether he sought to heavy the Ukraine Government into helping him with his 2020 re-election bid.

The question of whether Trump tried to withhold US$400 million ($630m) in aid to Ukraine to pressure President-elect Volodymyr Zelenskiy to investigate former US Vice-President Joe Biden and his son, Hunter, is the subject of an official whistleblower complaint.

Hours earlier Britain's Supreme Court ruled that Prime Minister Boris Johnson acted illegally in shutting down Parliament. It said: "The Prime Minister's advice to Her Majesty was unlawful, void and of no effect."

The decision that prorogation of Parliament, seemingly to limit debate over Brexit, was unlawful at least temporarily suggested that Britain's institutions are in better shape than those in the US when it comes to curbing executive power.

Since becoming Prime Minister and taking a freshly forceful approach to achieving Brexit, Johnson has piled up defeats in battles with Parliament and the courts. In two months, he has lost a series of votes and his parliamentary majority. Twenty-three of his MPs have deserted.

Johnson is in a fight to stay in his job.

Yet amid the tactical blunders, he can't be written off. A Brexit deal could still be negotiated with the European Union. Opinion polls show the Conservatives leading with Labour and the Liberal Democrats in a scrap for Remain votes. Johnson's woes could result in Leave voters uniting in a coming election and an increased Tory majority. Johnson will paint Parliament as obstructing the 2016 referendum result.

At least in Britain, some MPs throughout the Brexit process have felt compelled to be counted on matters of principle. In the US, Trump has received little resistance from his own party.

Pelosi has been highly reluctant to push impeachment, judging correctly that the US public is largely opposed. That could end up working in the Democrats' favour since they can't be accused of rushing to hammer Trump.

The timing is tricky, with the primary voting season just months away, but there is a window. An eventual impeachment trial is unlikely to get through the Republican-controlled Senate, but there is value for the Democrats in taking a stand and forcing Republican opponents to defend Trump's behaviour on the record and in the election.

For his part, the US President will use every trick in his political toolbox to confuse and distract.

After this week, the 2020 US election just got a lot crazier. Ultimately it will be up to the voters to decide.